End the Drought

2005-02-23T16:19:00.000-08:00

The 1st likely mistakes of the season:

According to the Chicago Tribune and Paul Sullivan it appears that the leadoff hitter will likely be Corey's to lose. Now, lets look at what qualities Patterson has to qualify him as the leading candidate to lead-off.

How much of a factor does the ability to get on-base matter to a lead-off hitter?

On-base percentages from last year:
Ramirez .373 (likely will be between .360-.370)
Nomar .364 (likely will be in the .340s)
Lee .356 (will likely be higher this year)
Barrett .337 (should carry over into 05')
Walker .352 (should be between .340-.350)
Hollandsworth .336 (career)
Burnitz .351 (career)
Patterson .320 (should be around .335 next year)

How much importance is there by a leadoff hitter's ability to work the count, draw a BB, while giving the #2 and #3 hitters a better gauge on the starting pitcher?

Pitcher per Plate appearance from last year:

Lee 3.94
Walker 3.85
Burnitz 3.85
Ramirez 3.62
Barrett 3.55
Patterson 3.46
Hollandsworth 3.34
Nomar 3.14

I tend to value the ability to reach base and the effect it has on the order later in that inning. The inning that the most runs are scored is the 1st inning, it should be treated as such. Another statistical fact, the winning team will likely score more runs in one inning than the losing team will the entire game. Patterson is a middle of the order hitter with the bonus of speed, not a top of the order speed hitter with the bonus of power. The way to separate the two is b/c of one reason and that is a little thing they are not looking at; OBP.

My ideal 05' line-ups:

Vs. RHP
Walker
Nomar
Ramirez
Lee
Burnitz
Dubois
Patterson
Barrett

Vs. LHP
Hairston (2B)
Nomar
Ramirez
Lee
Burnitz
Dubois
Patterson
Barrett

The line-ups are a nice intro into part II of the likely early mistakes of the 05' season, which will be concluded tomorrow.

2005-02-22T15:19:00.000-08:00

Get that team a LOOGY!

This is an initial push to get Rusch out of the rotation and into a more important spot for the team (left handed relief). How can a situational lefty be more important than a starting pitcher? When a team lacks anyone who can get a LH batter out on a consistent basis that does not close games. With the loss of Kent Mercker, leaving Remlinger as the most likely candidate to retire opposing LH batters, it will be a long season for the micromanager inside of all of us, yelling fo the lefty when Dunn is up to bat. Unfortunately if that is Remlinger, is best pitch is a tailing change-up that breaks down and in on a LH batter which is where he wants it. Of course, there are other options as Will Ohman has very good stuff and will likely retire LHs, but doubtful he will make the opening 25 man roster. Also, there is Stephen Randolph who was acq'd from AZ for a PTBNL, good stuff but can't control it. There would have to be another piece to the puzzle for it to fit nicely and that would be the progression of another pitcher as the #5 starter, I would love see Mitre or Dempster become the #5 and keep it warm till Guzman shows some dexterity.

Here is the opponent's OPS. of left handed hitters from 2004' (LH pitchers are in bold) of the projected bullpen...

Dempster (only 27 ABs) .787
Hawkins (135 ABs, will likely close or set-up) .735
Wellemeyer (43 ABs) .863
Leicester (51 ABs) 1.092
Remlinger (66 ABs) .851
Borowski (32 ABs, we all know about his struggles vs. both LHs and RHs) 1.199
Rusch (120 ABs).569 OPS

Extremely simple and to the point, if the Cubs have only Remlinger in the pen as the token lefty, the Cubs will lose more close games than they did last year and that is hard to do.

2005-02-21T16:14:00.000-08:00

It isn't you, Carlos!

Last week, Zambrano mentioned that one of his goals was to get stronger later in the season. For Carlos, getting stronger in the second half might be more of a negative than a positive, if he intends on adjusting his workout routine, he will be asking for trouble.

Carlos is one of the strongest pitchers in baseball, both in velocity and fatigue levels. For two years now Carlos has been one of the most abused pitchers finishing 3rd in 2004' and 10th in 2003' in Baseball Prospectus'Pitcher Abuse Points.

Want to know how to improve Carlos Zambrano as the season progresses? Monitor him more carefully. The concept of saving a pitcher for his next after the outcome has been decided has been a foreign concept for the Cubs (well beyond Baker's tenure).

Several examples from the 2004' season...

April 15-117 pitches in a 10-5 win (9-1 when he left the game)
April 20-111 pitches in a 9-1 win
May 13-114 pitches in a 7-3 win (6-1 when he was pulled)
May 30-110 pitches in a 12-1 win
June 5th-113 pitches in a 6-1 win
June 10th-121 pitches (12-3 win)
June 26th-128 pitches thru 6 in a 6-3 loss
July 2nd-124 pitches thru 6.1 (6-2 win)
July 29th-120 pitches in a 4-0 win
Aug. 11th-124 pitches in a 5-1 win
Aug. 23rd-115 pitches thru 6.2 in a 8-3 win
Sept. 6th-119 pitches in a 9-1 win
Sept. 17th-112 pitches in a 12-4 win
Sept. 27th-124 pitches thru 6.1IP in a 12-5 win

14 out of 31 starts the Cubs could have been more cautious w/Zambrano.

For those wondering, Zambrano went 4-0 with a 1.01 ERA in September.

It is obvious to me, instead of increasing the risk of an off-season injury (see Prior and Borowski) by trying to increase in-season stamina, have the Cubs use some caution in games that have likely already been decided.

2005-02-11T08:15:00.000-08:00

Minor League Notes:

From Rotoworld:

" Felix Pie-His game still needs plenty of work, but Pie had an impressive 799 OPS as a 19-year-old in the Florida State League last year. The concern is the strikeout-to-walk ratio. He needs to do a better job of identifying which pitches he should be swinging at. If it comes with time, he could be the next Johnny Damon. It’s just as possible that Pie will never have the on-base skills to be a leadoff hitter, but since he does project as a strong defensive center fielder, he won’t need to be that great of a hitter to be a quality regular. He’s due to spend at least two more years in the minors."

" 6. Ryan Harvey-The sixth overall pick in the 2003 draft. The Cubs have taken things slowly with him because of the torn ACL he suffered prior to being drafted, but he’ll get to try out full-season ball this year. Harvey is still all potential at this point. He should develop 30-homer power, and he’ll probably reemerge as an above average runner now that he’s fully recovered from knee surgery. As he gains experience, he’ll turn into a strong defensive right fielder."

From the USA Today:

"With Mr. Sosa gone, Jason Dubois and Todd Hollandsworth are going to get increased face time in left field. By season's end, slugger, and I do mean slugger, Brian Dopirak might be ready for the majors. A team executive said Dopirak is the Cubs' Vladimir Guerrero, minus the arm."

I have no idea what that means, would Brooks Kieschnick have been the called the same thing back in 94'?

From the Daily Southtown:

"Angel Guzman, whom Baseball America has named the Cubs' top pitching prospect for two straight years, managed just 11 appearances in the minors last year after recovering from shoulder surgery in 2003. But the 23-year-old right-hander could be back stronger than ever. Farm director Oneri Fleita watched Guzman throw in a few sessions in Venezuela recently. "Angel told Oneri it's the best he's felt by far since before the surgery," Cubs general manager Jim Hendry said. "He's not taking as long to get loose again. "He will come to camp, but we're not going to rush him. I don't see a scenario he would break with the club because he missed so much time. I certainly would pencil him in at (Triple-A) Iowa, and if he can get out of the gate and have success and be his old self, we would be able to go get him."

2005-02-11T08:08:00.000-08:00

The Annual Top 50 Prospect List (31-40):

#40 Kevin Collins-Strong Season at Lansing, overshadowed by Dopirak and Sing as far as other power hitting OF/1B types in the system. He has one tool on offense, which is power, he isn't too old to where he can be counted out, but the poor season in 2003' hurt his chances of remaining in the system long enough to get to AAA without being left unprotected. He'll have to improve his eye at the plate to have any shot at the majors, his power will always never shut the door on him. He should head to Daytona and enjoy working w/Zisk, it was a nice rebound for him.

#39 Will Ohman-Nice comeback story for him, came back from Tommy John Surgery, pitched fairly well at Iowa, nice K ratio, control should improve as the lingering effects from the surgery diminish. Pitched well in Winter Ball, features a low 90 FB and a slider with bite, probably the best LOOGY in the system with a chance to make to the 25 man roster (Pinto projects as a starter and Rohlicek is still a season away). Will either be the 2nd lefty in the pen, if Rusch is still a starter or will go to Iowa and likely close.

#38 Jermaine Van Buren-Any time a player comes from the Indy Leagues and re-establishes himself, it is a great story. Van Buren spent the 03' season in the Central Baseball League and was sold to the Cubs late in 2003'. Designated in relief, Van Buren shined allowing only 23 hits in 53 innings, while striking out 10 more baserunners than he allowed. His stuff is similar to Ohman, low 90s FB and a decent slider, still not too old for the minors despite hitting the Indy League circuit. Will likely go to Iowa and compete against Ohman for the closer's spot.

#37 Jerry Blevins-A potential reach at this spot, he had a real strong showing at Boise, used his upper 80s/low 90s FB well as well as his slider, projects as a future lefty specialist. The Cubs typically seem to have strong pens at Low-A, next year will be no different.

#36 Dwaine Bacon-The little engine that could, the best baserunner in the system (I think Pie has more pure speed), who knows how to draw BBs and create havoc once on. 2004' was a disappointing for Bacon, his avg. dropped below .250 and despite the increase in BBs, his OBP dropped nearly 20 points and his Slg over 30 points. He'll be 26 in April and will likely be at Iowa leading off, Iowa has a little bit of a log-jam with Jackson, Kelton, and Greenberg right there, it'll be interesting to see how the Cubs OF plays out for Bacon. Bacon projects a 5th OF'er, a more glamourous version of Tom Goodwin.

#35 Jake Fox-Had a solid season at Lansing, platooning with Rick at C, and will likely do the same at Daytona. Showed the same the power that made him a 3rd rd. pick, while improving defensively, has been better than I expected defensively, while not showing the plate patience I seen from him at Michigan. Defensively, he's behind Rick (who projects as avg. at this point) and will likely see more time at DH than C. He will have to cont. to work at being at C and improve his BB totals to project as an everyday C in the majors, the dropoff is severe going from C to 1B as far as projection unless you can hit like Daric Barton.

#34 Darin (not Scott) Downs-Showed the promise and the health I was looking for last off-season, still has the upper 80s FB and nice curve. Improved his numbers and IP at Boise last year, should start at Lansing and see IP increase as the Cubs have been very cautious with him. Still needs to improve his control and did a solid job of limiting his HRs in a hitter's league, I expect him to breakout next year.

#33 Russ Rohlicek-Another LH reliever has made the list, amazing to see 3 so far and the major league squad has one (Remlinger) and he is better against RHs than LHs. Converted starter turned reliever had a very strong year, ERA around 2.00, 44 hits in 69 IP, a K ratio just under 9, and only allowed 2HRs in the last years (134IP). His main problem has been his control, BB'ed 42 men in the 69 IP, and will need to improve that as he heads to Iowa. The Cubs sent him to the AFL which speaks strongly how they feel about him, he throws in the low 90s, has a deceptive delivery and his former work as a starter, allowed him to develop a show me change as well.

#32 Buck Coats-On a personal level, one of the nicest Cubs prospects I've met as a player, he made strides in all aspects of his game, expect drawing BBs. In 1200 career ABs, he managed 6HRs, in 414 ABs last year, he managed 8 HRs in a pitcher's league. He also .290, while his XBH ratio went up to 29%, but he made more strides defensively, and will cont. to progress at SS at AA. He still has quite a bit to go defensively as he is prone to simple errors (bad throws/poor fielding), but enough range and the arm to possibly make it as a SS, if he shows continual improvement. The only concern was his drop in BBs as they went from 64 in 2003 while dropping to 32 in 2004', while his K ratio increased.

#31 Eric Patterson-You all know he is Corey's brother, similar athletic ability, EP doesn't project to have the same power as Corey, but compensates with a better eye at the plate. Will likely start at Peoria at 2B, I hope the Cuns don't shift him to the OF, it would be a waste at this stage. Should hit avg., draw BBs, steal bases, play a decent defensive 2B, and if there was a comparison to be made, I would say Eric Young is the one that comes to mind.

2005-01-29T18:44:00.000-08:00

The Annual Top 50 Prospect Listing:

#50 Tony Richie-Still bothered by shoulder problems was able to hit .314/.373/.389 at Boise, should be heading to Wes Tenn if not hit w/injuries, still projects as a weak hitting starting C or an above avg. backup. I suspect he'll end up at Lansing.

#49 Carlos Vasquez-Just quietly going thru the system with an avg. FB and slider, any chance of him making it to the majors will depend on his ability to improve from medicore numbers at Daytona. Probably end up in the West Tenn pen.

#48 Micah Hoffpauir-Micah did improve over his 2003' numbers and showed an increase in power despite hitting in the Southern League. He was a product of being overshadowed by fellow 1B, Dopirak, Collins, and Sing. He will be at Iowa next year.

#47 Chris Shaver-4th round in 2004, featured an upper 80s to low 90s FB and solid slider from the LH side, started at Boise and put up ok numbers, will likely be a starter at Peoria, but projects out of the pen.

#46 Alberto Garcia-Continues to hit, continues to search for a position on the field and how to draw BBs. Will go to Daytona and likely play 3B, 1B, and OF possibly in the same week.

#45 Sean Gallager-Another 04' draftee, that pitched well at Mesa, displaying a 92MPH FB and the best curve in the 04 draft. Has the build to progress nicely, he will need to develop a change, if his FB has reached its peak velocity. Likely to begin at Boise, possibility to start at Lansing, but very doubtful.

#44 Eric Eckenstahler-PTBNL in the Felix Sanchez deal, pitched decent after the trade after he regressed w/Toledo. 28yo., with limited ML experience and hasn't improved his control isn't positive, but hard to pass up a LH with a 92FB and solid breaking pitch. Will probably maintain the same role he has for the last 3 years as a AAA LOOGY.

#43 Luis Montanez-I'm a sucker for punishment, 10 years from I might still be including him for nostalgia purposes. He showed what he could have done if he had not been rushed after his MVP season in the AZL. Shifted to OF, actually he is not than the college seniors that liter the Northwest League.

#42 Carmen Pignatiello-My greatest fears for him came true, the progression from going from High-A to AA was too much for him. The ability to get by with deception of a change, decent breaking pitch and a mid 80's FB wore off. Will either be held back at West Tenn. or go to Iowa as a LOOGY.

#41 Mitch Atkins-maybe a reach here, but the 04' draftee (7th round) has a nice ceiling with him as he has a nice build, good 88-92 FB, and the makings of a plus breaking pitch and change. Will be better off with plenty of off-season work at Fitch and a season at Boise.

2005-01-29T17:08:00.000-08:00

The Drought is Over!

Well, for this Blog it is. The recent dealings have sparked my motivation again to write.

Much has been said about the trade, on paper the Cubs have traded a aging superstar still possible of hitting in the .850s-900s OPS level/.290-.310 EqA for a utility infielder and two prospects who rank in the 15-30 range in the Cubs system and the possibility of a 3rd. I can't forget the 10+ mil heading to Balt. for charity reasons.

Despite that, I am not upset as the Cubs made their bed and had to pay the consequences of stooping to the level of a PR war with no possible winner.

Mike Fontenot is a 2B who has a decent stick, below par defensively, can draw BBs, needs to increase contact as he progresses, I would rank him lower than Richard Lewis at this stage. The other prospect that is known is RHP Dave Crouthers who is a RH who will shifted to the pen for 06' as his struggles, mostly from confidence problems will likely make him glossy bullpen guy. I would rank Leicester ahead of him at this stage within the Cubs system as far as current pitchers within the system w/similar roles.

As far as justification of the trade, new prospects in roles within the organization that are already filled will likely be a transfer pass to another club.

The players I am interested in are very common names Aubrey Huff, still in his prime, will be expensive, and would fit nicely to give a LH bat w/power. He would be able to replace the void from Alou's productive 04' campaign, his ZiPS projection .890 would rank the highest on the team for 05'.

Brad Wilkerson, who might be the choice among the Cubs brass, given his inability to hit for avg., but manages to create havoc for opposing pitchers and can hit at the top of the order despite plus power.

Austin Kearns, my sleeper among the group as Gary Hughes and Kearns have a past in Cincy and the current surplus of OF'ers might make a possible trade target. I hope his recent injuries have decreased his trade value as I predict a breakout season for him similar to his rookie campaign, ZiPS tends to go along with my belief system predicting a .285/.388./473 line in 347 ABs.

Getting Huff becomes a must at this stage, to include someone like Kearns to compliment Huff, would likely improve the Cubs OF (both offensively and defensively last year) and relying on Nomar trying to reduce the reduction in offense over last year becomes less of a burden on him.

It would drain a good portion of the pitching prospects near the ML level, I would expect several of Mitre, Guzman, Brownlie, Wellemeyer, Nolasco, Brownlie, and Leicester and potential positional prospects to get a combo of Huff and Kearns, but the short-term/long-term benefits outweigh the long-term benefits of having a pitching surplus 1-2 years from now.

I'm also a proponent of trying to get Dotel from Oakland, but like a domino, one needs to fall 1st and that would be getting Huff from TB.

2004-09-14T06:25:00.000-07:00

Callis weighs in on a potential 5th starter next year:

"Tim from Chicago asks:
With Matt Clement almost certainly gone next year, which pitcher has the best chance to be the Cubs fifth starter next year: Renyel Pinto, Bobby Brownlie, Angel Guzman or Ryan Dempster? Thanks.

Jim Callis: What about Sergio Mitre? He had a very nice year in Triple-A and would be a $300,000 option that would allow the Cubs to allocate more funds toward their offense. But I suspect that Dusty Baker will give Ryan Dempster every opportunity to win that job."

Personally, I'm all for giving it to the best pitcher which includes the pitchers mentioned above as well as Leicester and Wellemeyer who have started for most of their minor league career. Guzman has the best stuff of the group, but can use some time at Iowa to stay healthy and get some IP, something he hasn't done. Brownlie and Pinto can both use IP at Iowa as well. That leaves Dempster, Mitre, Wellemeyer, and Leicester as the potential starters. I'd like to see Wellemeyer get the job out of those 3, he would have the chance to improve his breaking pitch and improve his control, he has the biggest upside out of those 4.

2004-09-14T06:23:00.000-07:00

Rotoworld on Dubois:

"Jason Dubois ... 25, has to be taken seriously as a future regular after hitting .316/.389/.630 in his first season in Triple-A. He doesn’t have any star potential, but his power should make him a solid everyday left fielder for a few years. The Cubs will have an opening for him once they decline Moises Alou’s 2005 option. That doesn’t necessarily mean they’ll let him play, though. They need to trade him if they’re not going to use him, as he has nothing left to learn in the minors."

2004-09-14T06:20:00.000-07:00

Dopirak or Harvey:

Jim Callis still think very highly of a extremely gifted Ryan Harvey.

"Harvey is more athletic and can do more things than Dopirak, but Dopirak really tore up the low Class A Midwest League this year. I'd give Dopirak maybe a slim, slim edge, but that may change by the time I get around to doing our Cubs Top 30 in the offseason."

2004-09-13T20:06:00.000-07:00

Note on Felix Pie:

Jeremy Deloney, Baseball Miscellany, on Felix Pie CHN :

" ... The Cubs have often lacked a legitimate leadoff hitter and they have to look no further than their own high A affiliate in Daytona. CF Felix Pie ranks among the top minor league leadoff men for his speed and his ability to make contact. He doesn’t yet have the on base abilities that are generally required in today’s #1 hitters, but he’s only 19 years old ... The only tool that some scouts question now is his ability to hit for power. Of course, at 6’2” 175 pounds, Pie still has some growing to do and could stand to add valuable muscle to his upper body ... has the potential to steal 40+ bases in the big leagues if he can learn to get on base more. His speed also helps him immensely in the outfield. Despite his youth, he shows above average defensive skills including a strong arm, good range, and sound instincts. Pie may not ever win a Gold Glove, but he certainly doesn’t lack for effort ... From an offensive standpoint, Pie has a lot of work to do. At least the Cubs can be patient in his development ... Because Pie has such raw abilities, the Cubs would be wise in taking things slow with him. Next year he’ll most likely be in Double A with West Tennessee. He will most certainly work on making more hard contact and pulling the ball to unleash his power potential ... If he can add a little more power and more patience at the plate, Pie might be able to push Corey Patterson to an outfield corner (or another organization) in 2-3 years."

2004-09-11T08:23:00.000-07:00

Changing Styles:

No, this is not about converting the Cubs offense from a 3-run HR to a small ball offense for next year (although, Beltran and Renteria would be a boost of speed at the top). This is about this blog and what I write in the manner it is written, there are plenty of better blogs out there as far as thought provocation and information both at the major and minor league levels than mine.

I will concentrate on stories not just random info. as stats, rankings, and tools evaluations are great; the way they got there is even better. I will still try and include Cubs info at various points just not as frequent as in the past.

I'm sorry to those who enjoy this blog in the current format as I have rec'd some wonderful remarks via Haloscan and e-mail. The Cubs would still be a focal point, just not as much as my writing, and the story within an article.

I'm currently in the infancy stages of an article concerning Aussie baseball and it will take time to complete the article in the manner I feel necc. to complete rather than patching items together as my blog portrays.

2004-09-06T07:23:00.000-07:00

Setting the Cubs rotation:

The season is undecided, the expectations resting upon the final 30 days of the season, and 96 years of pressure destined to be mentioned. This is crunch time, 130+ games have meant very little and it comes downs to these final series. The pitching match-ups are key, the Cubs have relied on their starting pitching through an inconsistent offense and key injuries to stay in the race for post-season glory. The rotation is comprised of overworked starters and inconsistent pitchers coming off injuries, showing glimpses of what they were a year ago, but not enough to feel 100% confident in.

Baker has set the rotation for the rest of the year, the horses are now set and expected to jump the 1st hurdle; getting into the playoffs.

Remaining Schedule:

C=Clement
Z=Zambrano
M=Maddux
P=Prior
W=Wood
R=Rusch

9/6 Mont=Z
9/7 Mont=C
9/8 Mont=M
9/9 FLA=W
9/10 FLA=P
9/11 FLA=Z
9/11 FLA=R/C (on 3 days rest)
9/12 PIT=C
9/13 PIT=M
9/14 PIT=P
9/15 CIN=W
9/16 CIN=Z
9/17 CIN=C
9/18 CIN=M
9/19 CIN=P
9/20 FLA=W
9/20 FLA=R/Z (on 3 days rest)
9/21 PIT=Z
9/22 PIT=C
9/23 PIT=M
9/24 NYM=W
9/25 NYM=P
9/26 NYM=Z
9/27 CIN=C
9/28 CIN=M
9/29 CIN=W
9/30 CIN=P
10/1 ATL=Z
10/2 ATL=C
10/3 ATL=M

There are some issues to be addressed with how Baker has this setup, it is set-up so that the two most overworked pitchers from 2004' are potentially geared for the two double-headers, and the most starts by Clement. Also the 6 most important games of the month will be against the Marlins and this sets up as 2 starts by Wood, 2 starts by spot starters, 1 start by Prior, and 1 start by Clement. This setup will lead to a more likely chance of one of the starters having a poor start as Wood and Prior have been the most inconsistent in the rotation and that is before factoring the likely spot starter (Rusch). The rotation can be setup more effectively and this is how I would manufacture the rotation...

C=Clement
Z=Zambrano
M=Maddux
P=Prior
W=Wood
R=Rusch

9/6 Mont=W
9/7 Mont=P
9/8 Mont=M
9/9 FLA=C
9/10 FLA=Z
9/11 FLA=W
9/11 FLA=R/P (on 3 days rest)
9/12 PIT=P
9/13 PIT=M
9/14 PIT=C
9/15 CIN=Z
9/16 CIN=W
9/17 CIN=P
9/18 CIN=M
9/19 CIN=C
9/20 FLA=Z
9/20 FLA=R/W (on 3 days rest)
9/21 PIT=W
9/22 PIT=P
9/23 PIT=M
9/24 NYM=C
9/25 NYM=Z
9/26 NYM=W
9/27 CIN=P
9/28 CIN=M
9/29 CIN=C
9/30 CIN=Z
10/1 ATL=W
10/2 ATL=P
10/3 ATL=M

As previously mentioned the two series vs. Florida are key and this sets up as 2 starts by Rusch, 2 by Zambrano, 1 by Wood, and 1 by Clement, which is a better matchup than what it is shaped up to be. Also if the Cubs go short-handed vs. Florida, instead of the most overworked pitchers for the doubleheaders, it would be the least worked pitchers. By giving Zambrano and Clement an extra 3 days rest, I think it would help down the stretch, at this point they are rusty and is dependent on their off-day schedules and how effectively they use them.

Another key point is the possibly of a 1 game playoff, with the current rotation it would likely be Prior in the 1 game playoff, the rotation I would employ would have Clement as the playoff starter. I think Clement at this stage gives the Cubs a better chance of winning that game moreso than Prior.

2004-09-04T09:31:00.000-07:00

Minor League All-Stars:

(Cubs prospects will be in bold)

Pacific Coast
C Rose Mike
1B Johnson Dan
2B Burke Chris
3B Atkins Garrett
SS Barmes Clint
OF Allen Chad
OF Church Ryan
OF Riggs Adam
DH Pickering Calvin

RHP Sweeney Brian
LHP Downs Scott
RP Reyes Al
MVP Johnson Dan
PIT Downs Scott

(no Iowa Cubs were selected)

Southern
C Willingham Josh
1B Gutierrez Jesse
2B Lewis Richard
3B Encarnacion Edwin
SS Wilson Josh
OF Schumaker Skip
OF Stern Adam
OF Calzado Napoleon
OF Nelson Brad
DH Sain Greg
U Bergolla William
RHP Rose Brian
LHP Pinto Renyel
RP Baker Brad
MVP Lewis Richard
MVP Baker Brad

Florida State
C Alfonzo Eliezer
C Martin Russell
1B Sing Brandon
2B Young Delwyn
3B Baldiris Aarom
SS Guzman Joel
U Cota Carlo
OF Murton Matt
OF Pie Felix
OF Davenport Ron
U Roberson Chris
DH West Jeremy
P Connolly Jon
P Broxton Jonathan
P Papelbon Jon
P Ramirez Ismael
RP Buzachero Edward
RP Sierra Edwardo
MVP Sing Brandon
MVP Ramirez Ismael

Midwest
C Barton Daric
1B Dopirak Brian
2B Kendrick Howie
3B Duncan Eric
SS Kinsler Ian
OF Collins Kevin
OF Dickerson Chris
OF Frazier Alex
DH Rottino Vinny
RHP Knox Brad
LHP Bondurant Steve
RP Zimmermann Bob
RP Rapada Clay
MVP Dopirak Brian

Northwest
C Nickeas Mike
1B Dale Lachlan
2B Dean Erik
3B Macri Matt
SS Cabrera Asdrubal
OF Herrera Javier
OF Montanez Luis
OF Horwitz Brian
DH Carter Chris
RHP Shappi A.J.
LHP Nottingham Shawn
RP Blevins Jerry
RP Miller Jim
MVP Herrera Javier

2004-09-04T09:27:00.000-07:00

Minor League Notes:

Cubs' slugger Brandon Sing and Jay's starter Ismael Ramirez took the top prizes in the Florida State League.

Sing came within inches of matching the Florida State League's record for most home runs in a season Wednesday night. However, a gusting wind pushed a would-be home run against the Palm Beach Cardinals to the wrong side of the left-field foul pole and Sing had to settle for the 32 homers he hit this season ... Sing didn't get the record. But he did get a handsome consolation prize -- the league's most valuable player award that officially will be announced today. "I didn't get the 33 (home runs) but I did get the MVP," Sing said. "I'll take that, especially after what I went through last year. The 33 was almost there. If it came, it came. Now the hurricane's coming." Sing finished the year leading the league in five offensive categories, including homers (32, RBIs (94) and runs (86). (Daytona Beach News-Journal)

2004-09-03T13:42:00.000-07:00

Scouting the Minor Leagues:

DJ over at Any Team Can Have a Bad Century who also writes at Northside Baseball and myself have decided to work together in a listing of the players with the best tools in the Cubs' minor league system. We have listed the catagories that are usually most important when scouting minor leaguers, I would like to thank DJ for allowing me to assist him in reviewing the Cubs system. I will post his results this Monday and then you will be able to compare and contrast our lists.

Best Hitter:
1)Felix Pie
2)Matt Murton
3)Brian Dopirak
4)Richard Lewis
5)Micah Hoffpauir

Best Power:
1)Dopirak
2)Ryan Harvey
3)Brandon Sing
4)Jason Dubois
5)Kevin Collins

Strike Zone Judgement:
1)Ryan Theriot
2)Murton
3)Sing
4)Anthony Granato
5)Adam Greenberg

Contact:
1)Theriot
2)Murton
3)Chris Walker
4)Casey McGehee
5)Hoffpauir

Best Baserunner:
1)Dwaine Bacon
2)Walker
3)Buck Coats
4)Greenberg
5)Theriot

Fastest Baserunners:
1)Bacon
2)Pie
3)Walker
4)Nic Jackson
5)Greenberg

Best Pitcher:
1)Angel Guzman
2)Bobby Brownlie
3)Andy Sisco
4)Ricky Nolasco
5)Reynel Pinto

Best FB:
1)Guzman
2)Billy Petrick
3)Carlos Marmol
4)Chadd Blasko (depending on rehab results)
5)Jason Wylie

Best Curve:
1)Sean Marshall
2)Brownlie
3)Richard Hill
4)Darin Downs
5)Jae Kuk Ryu

Best Slider:
1)Marmol
2)Luke Hagerty
3)Michael Wuertz
4)Wylie
5)Jon Leicester

Change:
1)Guzman
2)Carmen Pignatiello
3)Jon Connolly
4)Downs
5)Todd Wellemeyer

Control:
1)Guzman
2)Marshall
3)Bear Bay
4)Connolly
5)Brownlie

Reliever:
1)Russ Rohlicek
2)Wylie
3)Clay Rapada
4)Jermaine Van Buren
5)Eric Eckenstahler

All Defensive Team:
C-Jose Reyes
1B-Hoffpauir
2B-Robinson Chirinos
SS-Ronny Cedeno
3B-McGehee
OF-Pie
OF-Jackson
OF-Greenberg

Best Arm-OF:
1)Harvey
2)Dubois
3)Pie

Best Arm-IF:
1)Coats
2)Chirinos
3)Rojas

Most exciting Player
1)Pie
2)Dopirak
3)Harvey
4)Dubois
5)Jackson

Most Exciting Pitcher
1)Richard Hill

2004-09-02T17:19:00.000-07:00

September call-ups:

Typically an entertaining time of year for Cubs fans like myself who lust after the minor leagues and Cubs' prospects, when we get a quick peek of a player we've been reading about in Baseball America for years or maybe caught a game in Lansing, MI or Jackson, TN. These players would likely be replacing aging veterans who have been brought in as cheap stop-gaps and led the Cubs to basement of the NL Central to battle Milwaukee.

Like all cycles, it has changed as these call-ups may have a potentially larger role in determining the fate of team in contention for the post-season. This is a quick rundown of who is possibly going to have an impact and what type of impact that might be.

Ben Grieve:

Not your typical Sept. call-up, he will be serving the role as 4th OF'er/LH PH'er, he is an adequate 4th OF'er for a club going for the playoffs, will provide some pop and some runs allowed with his defense. Given the rest patterns of Sosa and Alou, he will see some action in the OF, this final month and likely be replaced by Goodwin in late innings. His potential impact is a 5 out of 10, key situational ABs are key for a team as poorly managed as the Cubs and as inconsistent as they are.

Mike DiFelice:

Typical lack of ability 3rd C, not much offense, solid defensively, and he'll allow the Cubs to use Bako is a more significant PH role (sarcasm) or Barrett when Bako is catching Maddux. Keep him away from as post-game celebrations, he'll possibly get rowdy. Not much impact for a 2nd string C, even less for someone with the skills of DiFelice. His potential impact is a 2 out of 10, likely to get under 10 ABs, maybe prevents a stray slider late in a ballgame.

Sergio Mitre:

His rough start to the season will likely have a negative impact on a potential Sept. appearance, he pitched well at Iowa and deserves another shot in the majors this year. He did much better against LHs at Iowa than the majors, but will likely be restricted to long-relief/situational RH. His impact is determined by Baker's usage pattern which will likely restrict his potential impact. Likely his impact will be 2 out of 10, if the Cubs need an extended outing in relief or the pen is running short is where he'll be needed.

Jason Dubois:

With the acquisition of Grieve, he projects as a 5th OF/RH PH'er, he can become an important piece of this team as he should become the top RH PH'er with power as Grudzielanek (when not starting) likely has the most power from the RH side off the bench. I doubt Baker will use him as a starter unless the season has been decided and like last year, it doesn't appear to be the case. He didn't get much of a chance when Sosa was on the DL and was benched over the likes of Macias in RF, so I doubt he'll get many ABs as a starter. Likely potential impact is a 3, he'll get a better chance to prove himself in Mesa.

Eric Eckenstahler:

Can be used as a LOOGY, with Mercker going down via suspension for his role in the Astros series, Eck might have a more important role than previously expected during that series. His stuff is that of a LOOGY, nice FB (92), sharp breaking slider (threw a 1-7 curve in HS), but lacks consistent control and at times will remind some of Andy Pratt when he is having trouble around the plate. I hope Eck has a significant role out of the pen, Dusty will like his size, Eric should benefit from the coaching staff. Potential impact is a 3, previous ML experience combined with a LH'er with a strong arm raises the potential impact.

Neifi Perez:

The Dungeons & Dragons fan club have likely closed their Excel spreadsheets for a brief second and wandered to a MLB transaction page and found their perpectual whipping boy again back in baseball. He is likely one of the worst hitting positional players of all-time, blessed by beating the Giants in 98' forcing a playoff against the Cubs. His role will likely be that of a defensive replacement, he has dropped off at SS defensively and will assume a role previously occupied by Augie Ojeda (without the shetland pony type appeal). Potential impact is a two, Dusty is a micromanager, Perez can exploit this as a strength or weakness if he has to bat for himself.

2004-08-31T07:06:00.000-07:00

Minor League Notes:

Cubs' 2B prospect, via ATL, and SD reliever, via BOS, picked as the best of the Southern League :

"Richard Lewis was named the 2004 Southern League Most Valuable Player ...The honor comes almost a month after the Chicago Cubs promoted him to AAA Iowa. Lewis ranks among the Southern League leaders in several categories, including batting average (second, .329), triples (second, 10), and slugging percentage (second, .532). He was the starting second baseman for the Western Division squad in the 2004 Southern League All-Star Game. Lewis, originally a first round pick (40th overall) of the Atlanta Braves in 2001, was acquired by the Cubs via a trade before the start of the 2004 season."

2004-08-30T12:11:00.000-07:00

Minor League Notes:

Ricky Nolasco ... Pitcher of the Week for August 20-26. Nolasco put together a pair of stellar starts last week, allowing just one earned run and six hits in 13.2 innings of work. He struck out 16 batters for the week, while limiting opponents to a .136 batting average. Nolasco, a fourth round selection of the Cubs in the 2001 draft, is ranked the number 20 prospect in the Chicago system by Baseball America. (Southern League)

2004-08-26T15:56:00.000-07:00

Mathes named co-NWL player of the week:

The 16th rounder from Western Michigan is making a strong showing.

Mathes registered a 2-0 record and a 2.45 ERA in 11 innings of work last week. He allowed nine hits and just three earned runs, striking out eight and walking but three. He held opponents to a .225 batting average.

The southpaw allowed just three hits and one earned run to notch his first professional win, a 3-1 verdict over Tri-City Tuesday night.

Sunday night, not nearly as sharp, but still held on for an 8-7 victory over Salem-Keizer. Mathes surrendered just six hits and two earned run in six innings of work, striking out three and walking none.

In his nine outings, five of which have been in a starting role, Mathes is 2-0 with a 3.89 ERA. In 37 innings, he has allowed 33 hits, 16 earned runs, striking out 34 while walking but seven batters.

2004-08-26T15:38:00.000-07:00

Dopirak claims first ever league MVP

(Courtesy of OurSportsCentral)
August 26, 2004 - Lansing, MI-Brian Dopirak’s first full season of professional baseball has turned a few heads around not only the Midwest League, but also all of professional baseball.
The 20-year-old Crystal Beach, FL native’s outstanding 2004 campaign just got better as he was named the Midwest League’s Most Valuable Player and the Prospect of the Year on Wednesday. The first baseman becomes the first Lugnut player to capture the league MVP award. The Midwest League All-Star was also named to the 2004 Midwest League Post-Season All-Star squad with Lugnut teammates Kevin Collins and Clay Rapada, who also joined Dopirak in Cedar Rapids earlier in the season for the All-Star Game. The three Lansing players are the most from any team. In all, nine of the 14 Midwest League teams were represented.

Dopirak, who has set new franchise records in homeruns and runs batted in this season, is currently batting .297 with 36 homers and 102 runs batted in. He earlier collected a 27-game hitting streak, the second longest in Lugnuts’ history and the third longest in all of minor league baseball. In the Midwest League, Dopirak is currently second in total hits, runs batted in, doubles and slugging percentage. His 68 extra-base hits lead the league.

Collins, who missed more than three weeks with a shoulder separation, is also having a monster year for the Lugnuts. Named as an outfielder, the Tampa, FL native has knocked out 31 homers and leads the league in overall slugging percentage. His 24 doubles are second on the club and he trails Dopirak by 12 for the lead in extra-base hits. On the season, he is batting .286 with 31 homers and 76 RBI.

Rapada, the lefty relief specialist from Chesapeake, VA, has amassed a 6-5 record in a team-high 52 appearances while compiling a 2.14 ERA. From April 18th through May 28th, Rapada did not allow an earned run over 15 outings, a season-high for relievers.

The Lugnuts open defense of their 2003 Midwest League Championship on Wednesday, September 8th as they play Game 1 of the Midwest League Divisional Series on the road at a site to be determined. Game 2 is the next night at Olds Park with fans enjoying a Molson Thirsty Thursday ($2.00 beers, $2.00 sodas and four buffalo style chicken wings for just $2.00).

2004-08-25T16:44:00.000-07:00

A Model of Frustrating Futility:

Tomorrow can be a milestone of sorts, if the Cubs win, it'll be the 1st time 15 games above .500 in 451 games, which was October of 2001'.

To get to 20 games above .500 (92 wins) which is what it will likely take to get to the playoffs, you have to go back 2326 games to Sept. of 1989'.

To get to 25 games above .500 (94 wins), you have to go back 2971 games, almost 20 years, dating back to the end of 1984'.

2004-08-24T18:17:00.000-07:00

Corey Patterson, Vernon Wells, or Alfonso Soriano:

Player A:
25yo.
XBH ratio-40.3% ((2B+3B+HR)/AB)
BB/AB-8.6%
K/AB-15.2%
BBIP-.301 ((H-HR)/(AB-HR-K))
.281 Avg
.340 OBP
.463 Slg
.277 EqA

Player B:
25yo.
XBH-34.5%
BB/AB-7.4%
K/AB-24.4%
BBIP-.351
.290 Avg
.344 OBP
.475 Slg
.278 EqA

Player C:
28yo.
XBH-36.3%
BB/AB-5.6%
K/AB-19.5%
BBIP-.307
.279 Avg
.325 OBP
.479 SLG
.268 EqA

Batter Profiles:

Soriano:
With incredibly powerful wrists, and swinging one of the longest, heaviest bats in the game, Soriano thinks he can hit anything. He's almost right. Few players are better at golfing a pitch at, or even below, the knees. He can get around on anyone's fastball, even on the inside half of the plate. And he always swings from the heels. Patient he is not, however. He'll take a strike, but not two, and he ends many at-bats without having seen a single one. With the success he's had as a hyper-aggressive, bad-ball hitter, it's somewhat understandable that Soriano would be reluctant to change. Still, it can be maddening to watch pitchers see how far off the plate they can get him to chase, as Pedro Martinez repeatedly did in the playoffs.

Patterson:
After batting mostly first or second in his first two years, Patterson was moved down to sixth last year, then third. The change released him from the pressure to do something he wasn't good at-work the count and get on base-and allowed him to be aggressive and look to drive the ball-his natural style. Patterson's approach still needs refinement, as he remains vulnerable with two strikes. Although he was as aggressive as ever at the plate, he showed better judgment in choosing which pitches to take. He'd had problems with lefties in the past but showed marked improvement against them last year.

Wells:
An RBI machine, Wells has driven in 100 runs in both of his full major league seasons. A line-drive gap hitter, Wells looks for low fastballs and powders mistake breaking pitches. Seemingly with each passing month, he's showing more patience at the plate and becoming more adept at recognizing and hitting offspeed material. Strong, serene, cerebral and very disciplined, he studies pitchers by routine. In 2002, Wells hit .248 against pitchers during his first at-bat in a game, and improved as the game progressed. With an enhanced knowledge of AL pitchers, he averaged .336 in his first at-bats against pitchers last season.

Using the 3-2-1 point system: (3 highest-1 lowest)
Patterson-18
Wells-16
Soriano-14

So far offensively, Patterson has been better offensively and defensively, he has been above avg., and is the youngest of the trio.

This has been quite a turnaround for Patterson, his numbers are creeping to the equiv. of last year as far as EqA. Amazing what happens when a player isn't given up on, I'm glad those idiotic Finley for Patterson died as quickly as the Nomar trade came upon us.

2004-08-23T15:43:00.000-07:00

Player Comparison:

Ryan Harvey vs. Brian Dopirak.

Basically 2 peas in a pod, same HS, similar type of hitters, high ceiling, and high power potential.

Their development track should be the same as Dopirak graduated 1 year before Harvey.

Dopirak was in Mesa in 2002', Harvey was there in 2003'.
Dopirak was at Boise in 2003', Harvey is there now.
Dopirak is now at Lansing, Harvey will be there next year.

Now, it is time to compare Dopirak's 2003' Boise season and Harvey's 2004' Boise season.

Dopirak:

183ABs 46H 4DB 13HR 24BB 58BB .240/.330/.464

36.9% XBH
12.5% BB/AB
30.2% K/AB
(-17.7%)

.272 Batted Balls in Play.

Harvey:
183ABs 49H 7DB 13HR 16BB 58Ks
40.8% XBH
8% BB/AB
32% K/AB
(-24%)

.321 Batted Balls in Play.

There were some signs that Dopirak was headed for a breakout season, 1st was the low BBIP (I'm aware of BABIP), which is an indication that there might have been a fluke given his high XBH ratio. Also, he had a decent 17.7%, which is solid for the type of hitter he is and his progression. That 17.7 has dropped to 14.1% at Lansing, his BBIP has gone up to a normal rate of .320 for the type of hitter he is.

Unfort., there are not the same signs for Harvey, I don't expect a jump in BBIP as Harvey had and if he does improve on his 24%, it won't likely be enough to make up the same difference (14.1%) Dopirak had. I also don't see a jump in XBH like Dopirak has had, any jump will be minimal.

While Harvey has been a better hitter at Boise compared to Dopirak, the signs are not as obvious for a severe jump in production.

2004-08-19T14:43:00.000-07:00

Buliding up a player:

The moaning has been overwhelming, thoughts of sending Kyle to Iowa and/or releasing him, since Farnsworth is out options has been mentioned. All of those are wrong, the ideal situation is to go through the arbitration process, pay him the 1.75-2.0 million he will get next year, build up his stats and trade him to improve the team. I think the Cubs will not have a need for a 2.0 million middle reliever as Hawkins, Borowski, and Remlinger take up enough of the payroll. Also, the progression of Leicester and Wellemeyer has reduced the need to keep him around.

How do you build up his value? Using his 2004' numbers it is pretty obvious as he has been soild vs. bad teams and poor vs. good teams.

Kyle's #s vs. +.500 teams:
Ana 1.1IP 3H 2ER 2BB 4Ks
ATL 1.1IP 3H 1ER 1BB 3Ks
CWS 1.1IP 1H 3ER 2BB 2Ks
LA 1.1IP 3H 3ER 2BB 3Ks
Oak 2.0IP 1H 0ER 1BB 3Ks
SD 3.0IP 4H 2ER 3BB 3Ks
SF 3.0IP 3H 1ER 2BB 2Ks
STL 9.2IP 7H 5ER 4BB 11Ks

Totals:
24IP 25H 17ER 17BB 31Ks 6.37ERA

Kyle's #s vs. teams .500 or worse:
ARZ 3.0IP 2H 0ER 0BB 1Ks
Cin 4.2IP 2H 1ER 0BB 3Ks
COL 2.0IP 3H 2ER 1BB 3Ks
Hou 7.1IP 7H 1ER 4BB 9Ks
MIL 5.2IP 5H 0ER 2BB 9Ks
NYM 1.0IP 1H 0ER 0BB 2Ks
PHI 3.1IP 4H 1ER 5BB 5Ks
Pit 3.0IP 4H 3ER 1BB 1Ks

Totals:
30IP 28H 8ER 13BB 33Ks 2.37ERA

Obviously there is nothing that can be proven from this, but if there is any validity from this (which I doubt) then the Cubs could ideally use Farnsworth situationally to not only benefit the Cubs, but his trade value as well.

There is a market for him, sugarcoating his outings next year might potentially increase that market.

2004-08-19T14:40:00.000-07:00

Minor League Notes:

John Sickels, ESPN.com, on new Twin Justin Jones :

" ... The Cubs drafted Jones in the second round in 2002 ... At 6-4, he can hit 94 mph and has an excellent changeup. He posted a 2.28 ERA in 16 starts for Class A Lansing last year, and returned to that level this season but pitched less effectively, with a 3.78 ERA in 15 starts. His ratios are generally good, and being a strike-throwing 19-year-old lefty with a good arm, he has a bright future. The caveat is health: he's been shutdown several times with shoulder woes. While surgery has been avoided thus far, and the problems are not said to be serious, the risk of injury is at least as bad as for any other pitcher his age, and maybe worse. That said, this is still a trade you make if you're the Twins, adding another promising, if risky, arm to the minor league stable, while giving up a major league salary that was excess to your needs."

2004-08-16T18:21:00.000-07:00

Grant Johnson signing breakdown:

The Chicago Cubs announced on Aug. 13 that they have agreed to terms with former Notre Dame righthanded pitcher Grant Johnson, their second-round pick (66th overall) in the 2004 June draft. Johnson had two years of eligibility remaining, after pitching for the Irish in the 2002 and '04 seasons (he missed '03 due to a shoulder injury). Johnson becomes the 40th Notre Dame player in the 10-year Paul Mainieri to move on to professional baseball, with that group including five from the 2004 squad (each was drafted in the first 14 rounds, the most Irish players ever selected that high in the same draft). Courtesy of the ND Baseball homepage

Then from Baseball America they had an article about the signing of Johnson.

In the article, it has an interesting quote from Stockstill: "One of the best development strategies is to take a breaking ball away from a young pitcher and make them throw fastball-changeup," Stockstill said. "You have to learn to pitch with that. Grant's is more of a slider, and he's shown he can pitch without it, and he's shown he's got a feel for a breaking ball."

This brings up an interesting question, is it actually true that taking away a breaking pitch is better for a pitcher?

I asked a scout from a different ML team about this and asked that question, his response was "yes, he's trying to get him to use and develop his 3rd pitch the change
and they know he has 2 pitches already".

He also said that "he's pretty good from what I hear" and "they might make him a bullpen guy..plus he's coming off of arm problems".

2004-08-15T18:26:00.000-07:00

Adjusting the Bullpen:

This isn't a rant on the pen or Farnsworth, I realize he has not been doing his job and has been in a mental funk during an extremely important stretch of the season. I think changes should be made and I will list them:

1)Demote Dempster for Wellemeyer, Dempster has not been used enough, even with 7 relievers, I would like to see that 7th RP get some IP, especially one that has been as productive as Wellemeyer has.

2)Adjust the bullpen roles, I think Kyle should not be used in important situations at this time and his improvement/cont. struggles would dictate how his role would be changed.

I don't think this is a bad bullpen, Dusty has not utilized it properly.

This year's ARP (Avg. Runs Prevented see Baseball Prospectus for definition, I've mentioned it several times):
Hawkins-10.8
Leicester-6.7
Wellemeyer-5.2
Mercker-5.1
Remlinger-1.3 (low b/c of one bad outing, which I'll further elaborate on)
Dempster-.7
Farnsworth-(-)1.5
Rusch-(-)2.0
Borowski-(-)8.2

The roles and how I would set them up:
Hawkins-CL
Remlinger-Setup
Mercker-Dusty's version of a LOOGY
Leicester-6th/7th inning/RH specialist
Wellemeyer-6th/7th inning/RH specialist
Rusch-Long relief/2nd LOOGY
Farnsworth-1 inning stints in situations of little importance

About Remlinger, if you take away his one bad outing against STL of 0.1IP 5ER 1ER 3BBs (this was orig. brought up by Tim at NSBB.com), his line would look like 19.1IP 14H 1ER 0HR 8BB 16Ks, 0.46 ERA. This is why I would like to see him used in set-up while Borowski rehabs.

It is even more interesting when looking at last year's ARP, this year's team actually has a higher ARP, it just hasn't been as obvious.

Farnsworth has had a drop of 11.8 runs
Borowski has had a drop of 22.7 runs
Wellemeyer has had a 15.7 run improvement

If you consider Borowski/Farnsworth as the CL/SU of last year's pen, they had a combined ARP of 24.8, this year the combo of Borowski, Hawkins, and Farnsworth have an ARP of 1.1, a drop of 23.7 runs.

On the other end of the spectrum, in 03' the 6 remaining relivers had an ARP of -27.5, while the other 6 relievers in 04' have an ARP of 17, a 44+ run difference.

The other 6 relievers used in each year were:

2003:
Alfonseca
Veres
Wellemeyer
Cruz
Guthrie
Remlinger

2004:
Dempster
Leicester
Mercker
Rusch
Wellemeyer

2004-08-13T16:45:00.000-07:00

Cubs acquire Eckenstahler:

Not much of a big story for most Cubs fans, for me it is quite a big story. We were teammates in HS (ACHS 95'), faced him in LL, had his father coach me in FB at the age of 12 and followed him progress from HS to now.

I've always been surprised at how well he has progressed, in HS he was a lanky LH (6'7" 185LB) with poor control, a nice but inconsistent curve, and a temper. He was more known for his Basketball skills, going down state for 3 point competition, leading scorer Jun. and Sen. seasons. I haven't spoken to him in quite some time, I know he still spends his off-seasons in the far North suburbs. He did grow up a Cubs fan, which is always good to see.

2004-08-10T17:44:00.000-07:00

Player comparisons

In the 2002' draft, there were some comparisons between Prince Fielder and Brian Dopirak. There was some debate as to who had more raw power between the two. Fielder was a much more polished hitter coming out of High School, Dopirak was quite raw. Let's take a quick look to see how each of them has handled Low-A.

Brian Dopirak:

12/20/83 Bats:R Throws:R

20 yo. at Low-A

411ABs 134H 262TB 29DB 0TR 33HR 37BB 97K (.301/.361/.600) 46.2% XBH

Prince Fielder:

5/09/84 Bats:L Throws:R

502ABs 157H 264TB 22DB 2TR 27HR 71BB 80K (.313/.409/.526) 32.4 XBH

Dopirak is showing why BA did rate him as having the best power in the draft, that is an amazing power ratio, his IsoP is off the charts right now. He is putting the ball into play at a .360 clip, despite what BP said he can hit the ball and has made improvements with his hitting, using all fields with power while raising his BBs and lowering his KS while advancing.

Is his ceiling as high as Fielder? Probably not, Fielder is having a very strong season at AA, while being younger than Dopirak and has a much approach at the plate.

But, it would be hard for BP to not recognize the improvements of Dopirak as me might have a legit of being the top prospect in the MWL for 2004' as Fielder was last year.

2004-08-09T18:27:00.000-07:00

Trying to correct Sosa:

Sosa is in a slump, has been for quite some time, I think is a problem compounded by the Cubs, not helped.

1st off, most slumps are mental, the easiest way to tell if a player is in a slump are items caused by the thought process heading into a pitch. The easiest one is pitch recognition, is a player expanding his zone and/or getting a late read on a pitch? Most players being their swing when the ball is halfway, Bonds has the quickest bat since Williams, he can wait that precious 1/10th of a second to get a better read.

The last thing or resort should be to adjust a player's mechanics, I think the Cubs went straight to the mechanical side rather than looking at the mental side of the slump.

I think there were mechanical flaws to Sosa's swing before hand, his bat quickness was not in a position where he can hold the bat where he does and get away with it. I would see what would happen if Sosa did put his bat in a "closer to launch" position (typically 6-8 behind the head, angled), I think it would help get his bat in a quicker launch position since time is of the essence when looking at the process of the swing. Holding his bat in the manner he does, it takes him longer to bring the bat into a launch position followed by an tilting the bat.

Also, despite the arguments, he is standing too far away from the plate, he does not have the reach or stride to be extending him for outside pitches. 1st off, he is not able to get the sweet spot of the bat onto the ball. Most important, he is overextending, any teaching of full extension is an incorrect one, when you fully extend your arms on a swing, you are slowing your bat. Ideally, as a RH batter, you'd like to have a flexed left arm at the point of contact at the position Sosa is currently at, even in a closed stance, he is not able to have "absolutes" of the swing, because he has to cheat to catch up and limit proper bat lag.

Also, he has closed his stance, while every hitter has a different stance and none are 100% right or wrong, it appears as Sosa begins his stride he does have proper center of gravity throughout the entire swing, combine that with his overswing and he has no balance from head to toe, hitting starts at the balls of your feet.

Basically, what I would do.

1)Bring him closer to the plate.
2)Open his stance where the feet are parallel again.
3)Put his bat in a quicker launch position.
4)Build up his confidence.

At this stage, these changes would likely lead to an improvement of where he is at currently.

2004-08-08T09:39:00.000-07:00

Thank You, Greg Maddux!

If god created a financial analyst, he would have sculpted his body from Greg Maddux. What an amazing run, excellence is based from results not appearence.

A look at the Earned Runs allowed in his 300 wins shows some amazing stats.

0 ER-87 times
1 ER-80 times
2 ER-82 times
3 ER-28 times
4 ER-17 times
5 ER-4 times
6 ER-1 time
7 ER-1 time

83% of the wins he had 2 earned runs or less.
29% of the wins he allowed no earned runs.

This is a model of pitcher who was outstanding, I think Wins are overrated when evaluating a pitcher, but he has been truly amazing. Any underestimation of what he has done over his career based on the quality of his 24 teammates is completely incorrect.

(Yes, I am aware that I did not want him to sign with the Cubs especially for the years and the dollar amount that he did, I stand by that and still feel that way.)

2004-08-08T09:11:00.000-07:00

Minor League Notes:

" ... The Cubs are being safe rather than sorry and have shut down right-handed pitcher Angel Guzman for the remainder of the season. The contention is that Guzman didn't reinjure himself, but he didn't pitch well in the minors after he missed a start and tried to come back. Rather than risk serious injury, the rehabbing Guzman will abbreviate what had been a hoped-for rebound from his surgery July 8, 2003, to repair a labrum tear." (Chicago Sun Times)

2004-08-06T13:11:00.000-07:00

Better Sept. or Better Season?

For teams in the post-season is it better to have a better last 30 days or a better overall season?

I have always believed the post-season is a crapshoot and the team playing best towards the end of the year will typically do better than a team that wasn't doing as well the last 30 days, but better overall during the season.

I'll be looking at the last 3 post-seasons (21 series).

In 2001'

ATL vs. Houston

Houston had the better overall record, while ATL had the better last 30 days.

ATL defeated Houston

ARZ vs. STL

STL had the better overall record and the better Sept.

Arizona defeated STL

Clev vs. SEA

Seattle had the better overall record and the better Sept.

Seattle defeated Clev.

NYY vs. Oak

Oak had the better overall record and the better Sept/

NYY defeated Oak

Ariz vs. ATL

Arizona had the better Sept. and the better overall record.

Arizona defeated ATL

NYY vs. Seattle

Seattle had the better Sept. and the better overall season.

NYY defeated Sea

NYY vs AZ

New York had the better overall record and the better Sept.

AZ defeated NYY

Overall: Teams with a better Sept. were 3-4, teams with a better overall record were 2-5.

2002:

STL vs. ARZ

Arizona had the better overall record while STL had the better Sept. record.

STL defeated AZ

SF vs. ATL

Atlanta had the better overall record while SF had the better Sept.

SF defeated ATL

Minn. vs. Oak

Oakland had the better Sept. and the better overal record.

Minn. defeated Oak

NYY vs. Anaheim

New York had the better in Sept. and overall record.

Anaheim defeated NYY

STL vs. SF

STL had the better overall record and better Sept.

SF defeated STL

Minn. vs. Anaheim

Anaheim had the better Sept. and overall record.

Anaheim defeated Minn.

SF vs. Anaheim

Anaheim had the better overall record while SF had the better Sept.

Anaheim defeated SF

Overall: the teams with better record went 2-5 and the teams with the better Sept. went 3-4.

2003:

Cubs vs. ATL

ATL had a better overall record, the Cubs had a better Sept.

Cubs defeated ATL.

FLA vs. SF

Florida had a better Sept, SF had a better overall record.

Florida defeated SF

NYY vs. Minn

NYY had a better Sept. and a better overall record.

NYY defeated Minn.

Bos. vs. Oakland

Oakland had the better record, while Boston had the better Sept.

Boston defeated Oakland

Florida vs. Cubs

They had the same record in Sept. (19-8) and Florida had the better overall record.

Florida defeated the Cubs.

NYY vs. Boston

NYY had the better overall record and better Sept.

NYY defeated Boston

NYY vs. Florida

Florida had the better Sept. and NYY had the better overall record.

Florida defeated NYY

Overall:

Teams that had a better Sept. than their opponent 11-9.
Teams that had a better overall record than their opponent 7-14.

Difference of 4.5 games.

Conclusion: Both of my assumptions were correct, the post-season is a crapshoot as 33% of the series were won by teams who had the better overall record going in the post-season and teams that did better in Sept. did better than teams with better overall records.

2004-08-02T17:12:00.000-07:00

Idiot of the Day:

Courtesy of an unknown member of the Cardinals about the Cubs acquiring Nomar, "How does that happen? It seems like someone's always looking out for the Cubs. I don't get it."

What a truly amazing statement, "It seems like someone's always looking out for the Cubs", this basically implies that MLB is fixed, phony, and a sham of what it appears to be. The concept that one of the members of the MLBPA, who makes his living in the same environment that he is accusing of the worst possible charge towards a sports organization.

I'm not going to make any assumptions on who it might have said it, there are past instances that implicate some more than others, but this is an embarrassment to the game of an extreme degree.

This article was courtesy of the Sun-Times.

2004-08-02T15:22:00.000-07:00

2 Questions about Nomar and the Cubs:

1)Many analysts had the Cubs as the favorites to win the NL Central & the success of the Cards has washed away any chance of that happening at this point, but had the Cubs been in the same position as STL currently resides in, would the Cubs have gone after Nomar?

I don't think the Cubs would have gone after Nomar if the Cubs had a comfortable lead on 8/2/04, the hole at SS would still have been there, but the supposed need for it, would not have been.

2)Knowing what you know now, are the Cubs a better team now w/Nomar than what you had projected at the start of the season? I'm not talking record-wise, I'm speaking of talent. Are the Cubs a better team with the progression of Ramirez, Barrett, Zambrano, Clement, Wellemeyer, and Leicester and the addition of Nomar, compared to a team that would have a healthy Wood, Prior, Sosa, & Borowski?

I don't know how to answer this, there is an answer, I like the squad with Nomar, but the loss of JoBo and the questions of Prior, I'm not sure this team has a greater chance of a progressing far into the post-season than it did at the start of the season. It is obviously a much better team than it was before Saturday.

I would love to see some feedback on these two questions.

2004-08-02T14:18:00.000-07:00

Iowa defeated Las Vegas 3-2 yesterday as Miter pitched well in his no decision, Miter pitched 7IP 8H 2ER 2BB 5Ks, his ERA is now at 2.79. As poorly as he pitched, he reminds a legit possibility if the Cubs do not re-sign Clement. Kelton hit his 15th HR going 1-3 with a BB (.255), Hubbard went 0-3 with a BB, now hitting .332, he won't make the 40 man roster, so he won't be a Sept.call-up, but would be more useful than Goodwin. Russ Johnson went 2 for 3, Dubois went 0 for 4 (.301) in the win.

West Tenn lost to Mobile 10-8 as Brownlie suffered his worst loss of the season going 3.1IP 8H 7ER 1BB 3Ks, his ERA went up to 3.42. The offense did provide some spark as Greenberg has made an easy time of it early on since his promotion. Adam went 2 for 3 2R, 2RBIs, HR, HBP, SF, not likely much more than a 4th OF'er if he reaches the majors, Greenberg has the chance to be useful, slightly stronger than a slap hitter. Lewis went 2 for 5 with his 25th double (.323), now the highest rated MI in the system, he will have somebig shoes to fill, since the 2B in front of him are in their 30's and only one should be back next year (hope. Walker). Craig went 1 for 4 with a DB (.279), Hoffpauir went 2 for 4 with a DB, and one of the bigger suprises Soto cont. to hit in a pitcher's League going 1 for 4 with 2 RBIs, Soto is young for AA and is above avg. defensively at this stage. The other main suprise besides Lewis and Soto is Cedeno, gifted and talented, he went 1 for 4, now hitting .289.

Daytona was defeated by Vero Beach 8-6 as Pie had a strong game going 2 for 4 with a BB, now hitting .314, his increase in BBs and XBHs, while being one of the youngest in the FSL is what we should come to expect. Salas had a strong game going 2 for 5, 2RBIs and very quietly Buck Coats is creeping that avg. up, hopefully by the end of the month, he can get to .280, his BBs are concerning as they have dropped sign., but he has decreased the errors and is young for the League. Given his style of hitting, he will need to draw BBs and improve defensively to project as a ML regular. JJ Johnson went 1 for 4 (.308) with his 6th HR, I'm glad he has had that type of season after consecutive poor seasons. Anderson Tavares took the loss going 4IP 4H 6R 4ER 3BB 1K 3HRs, the system's new top rated LHP went 1IP of scoreless ball allowing 2BBs while striking out 3.

Lansing lost to SB 10-7, if Lansing scores 7 runs, Dopirak is going to have a part in that, Dopirak went 2 for 5 with his amazing and league/organization leading 33rd HR, while hitting .306 on the season. Walker went 2 for 5 with his 44th SB, McQuade went 1 for 4, TR, and a BB, Fox went 2 for 4 with his 9th HR (.265). Marquez went 3 for 4, now hitting .289 on the season. Ferreras and Fischer combined to go 4.2IP 11H 9ER 3BB 4Ks in the loss.

Boise defeated Everett 10-6 as Montanez cont'd his charge in the NWL going 2 for 4 with 5BIs and his 8th HR, he is now hitting .357. Harvey had a strong game going 1 for 4 with his 9th HR (.266), he is further along than Dopirak at this stage last year, while having similar power and is a better athlete. Richie has been hot lately going 2 for 4, his avg. is now up to .336, known as defensive specialist out of FSU, the offense, even though he should be further, is looking awfully good. Rios had a strong game at SS going 3 for 4. The pitcher was predom. Shaver as the highest selected pitcher in this year's draft went 4IP 0H 0R 1BB 1K, lowering his ERA to 2.04.

2004-08-01T08:40:00.000-07:00

Nomah to the 2nd city:

Not much more can be said, the Cubs have a great trade in the short-term, potential to be great in the long-term, and did so without hurting the 25 man roster.

Just a quick number/comparison, little validity/high entertainment:

In 2004', Nomar has a RC (RC=RUNS CREATED Bill James's formulation for run contribution from a variety of batting and baserunning events.) of 6.7 per 9, which is simply if you had 9 Nomars, that line-up would score 6.7 per game. Alex Gonzalez has had a 2.14 RC/9 in 2004', that equates to a 307% increase going from A-Gone to Nomar. To put that into perspective, Bonds has an RC/9 of just over 19 and is 307% higher than someone with a RC/9 of around 6.25, the player who has a RC/9 of 6.25 in 2004' is....... Michael Tucker. How is that for looking at a glass half-full.

For more entertainment purposes, here is a 1993' scouting report on Nomar:

Scouting report on Nomar Garciaparra

Height:6.01
Weight 185
Bats:Right
Throws:Right
DOB: 7-23-73
Hometown: Whittier, CA
Position: Shortstop
Team:Orlean Cardinals

Hometown: Whittier, CA
College: Georgia Tech (5/95)

PRESENT FUTURE
HITTING ABILITY 35 65
RAW POWER 40 50
POWER FREQUENCY 30 50
RUNNING SPEED 55 55
BASE RUNNING 50 55
ARM STRENGTH 55 60
FIELDING 50 55
RANGE 50 55

TIME 1B: 4.25 SECONDS
TIME 60 YD: N/A

AGGRESSIVENESS: EXEL.
AGILITY: V. GOOD
SELF- CONFIDENCE: V. GOOD
MENTAL TOUGHNESS: EXEL.
PRESSURE PLAYER: EXEL.
BASEBALL INSTINCT: EXEL.
DEDICATION: EXEL.
COACHABILITY: V. GOOD
WORK HABITS: V. GOOD
OFF FIELD HABITS: V. GOOD
ARM ACTION: GOOD
HAND SIZE: N/A
TYPE OF HITTER: LINE DRIVE

PHYSICAL DESCRIPTION & INJURIES
Loose, wiry frame. Bit on the lanky side. Very lean build with room for him to fill out.

ABILITIES
Exel. defensive instincts. Approaches ball very well.
Exel. hands and feet. Very good lower body agility.
Loose arm with Avg. to Occ. Plus strength when needed, as well as plus carry. Handles wood bat extremely well.
Excellent plate coverage. Uses entire field with plus batspeed and compact swing. Very aggressive with bat.
Consistent line drive contact. Excellent all-around instincts.

WEAKNESSES
slings ball. Long arm action make off-balance throw difficult. Bit slow getting rid of ball. Lacks some smoothness in actions.

SUMMATION AND SIGNABILITY
Liked this player more each time I saw him. Lacks some of the glider type actions usual for this position, but this player can play. Makes all of the routine plays at SS, as well as range type plays in both directions. Plus runner, plus bat potential with AVG.
HR possibility from a premium position will make him
into a high draft pick in 1994. Gamer with alot of talent.

PROSPECT CATEGORY: Good
OFP: 58
REPORT DATE: 7/09/93 by Jim Howard

Speaking of Scouting Reports, here is the write-up on Matt Murton from BA:

Matt Murton, of

Age: 22. B-T: R-R. Ht.: 6-1. Wt.: 226.
Drafted: Georgia Tech, 2003 (1st round supplemental).
Signed by: Rob English.

Background: Murton and fellow 2003 first-rounder David Murphy teamed to win back-to-back Cape Cod League championships with the Wareham Gatemen in 2001-02. Chad Durbin completed the 2002 Wareham outfield. Initially projected as a mid-first-rounder, Murton lasted 32 picks in June because he slumped as a junior at Georgia Tech.

Strengths: Murton got pull conscious and lengthened his swing last spring, but he hits better with wood bats because he shortens his stroke and lets his power come naturally. The Cape’s 2002 home run derby winner, he has more pop than any hitter in the system. Boston makes all of its players in Class A or below keep notebooks on hitting, something Murton already did on his own. He runs well for his size and is a four-tool player.

Weaknesses: Murton’s weak throwing arm relegates him to left field. His swing has more effort than Murphy’s does. If he gets much bigger or stronger, his speed and range likely will dip below average.

The Future: Murton will reunite with Murphy once again in 2004, this time in high Class A. If all goes as expected, they’ll play together again, this time in Boston, by mid-2006.

Here is an interview Murton did with Red Sox Nation.net

"RSN: I recently saw a quote that said: “Matt Murton lives baseball.” Is this an accurate assessment?

MM: Yes, I think that’s fair to say. I enjoyed all sports growing up, but baseball is the one that’s always stood out the most. I’ve always loved the history of the game, and appreciate the things that make it unique -- things like 27 outs and no clock.

RSN: You went to Georgia Tech, as did Jason Varitek and Nomar Garciaparra. Have you had a chance to meet either of them?

MM: Varitek used to come down to the school once in a while, including for the alumni game. I talked to him a bit in spring training, too. We Georgia Tech guys like to take care of each other when we can.

RSN: Have you talked to him about what it’s like to play in Boston?

MM: No, although I did talk about it with Kevin Millar. He said that while he may be biased, Fenway is probably the best place to play anywhere. The fans are amazing. They know the game, and the place is always packed.

RSN: Have you been to Fenway Park, either to a game or to work out?

MM: I played in the Cape League, so yes. I made it to five or six games, and I got to take batting practice there once. It was a great experience.

RSN: You’re known for your power. Are you primarily a pull hitter, or do you drive the ball to all fields?

MM: A lot of my power is from left center to right center. I do pull the ball, but when I’m swinging well I’m keeping my hands in and driving the ball up the middle. That’s really important in handling breaking balls and changes.

RSN: What are your thoughts about hitting in Fenway, and the Green Monster?

MM: I think you need to bring a good approach to the plate, regardless of where you’re playing. You can’t be thinking too much about the park or its dimensions. You need to look for good pitches to hit, and the rest will take care of itself.

RSN: You should be moving up to AA Portland fairly soon. Are you aware that they have a 37-foot-high Green Monster of their own?

MM: I am, and I’m looking forward to the opportunity when it comes. It will be a chance to learn to play balls off the wall. Getting accustomed to that will help if I make it to Fenway someday.

RSN: While you were in the Cape League, Peter Gammons compared you as a hitter to Edgar Martinez. Do you think that’s a fair comparison?

MM: It was nice to have him say it. Martinez has been an amazing hitter for a long time, so it was flattering. I understand what he meant, but I have a long way to go to be mentioned in the same breath as Edgar. As for Gammons himself, he’s amazing.

RSN: How so?

MM: He’s just so great for baseball. His knowledge of the game is incredible. He comes up and talks to you, and knows all about you and your teammates -- and this is on the Cape and in the minors.

RSN: You played two years for Wareham in the Cape Cod League. David Murphy, Chad Durbin and Iggy Suarez were teammates of yours there, and you’re all together in Sarasota now. Talk about the Cape and your relationship with those guys.

MM: The Cape was a super experience. And it’s great for the four of us to have played amateur ball together and then move on to the pro ranks together. As a matter of fact, Durbin and Murphy are actually my rommates down here.

RSN: Murphy, who was the team’s top pick last year, is on the DL right now. How’s he doing?

MM: He’s doing well. He’s rehabbing in Ft. Myers and should be seeing some live action soon.

RSN: You played in Lowell last summer after being drafted. What was it like playing in the North East?

MM: Lowell is awesome. Having big crowds cheering for us in the low minors really gave a taste of how serious and passionate Red Sox fans are.

RSN: Two of your teammates in Sarasota are having strong years: Jeremy West and Jon Papelbon. Tell us about them.

MM: Jon really stands out as a competitor. He doesn’t mess around, either. He doesn’t nibble; he tries to get ahead in the count and bury guys. Last year he was on a pitch count, but now he’s really getting a chance to shine, and he is.

RSN: How about West?

MM: Jeremy has a good approach, and is a competitor, too. He works really hard. He’s strict with his diet and workouts, because he really wants to succeed.

RSN: Your manager, Todd Claus, says that you have a great work ethic yourself. Is this a big part of what you’re all about?

MM: The Red Sox have invested in me, so my job is to put out a maximum effort. I take pride in my work ethic. The will to win is great, but the will to practice to win is greater. That’s the way I like to look at it.

RSN: Talk about some of the instructors you’ve worked with in the system, including Carl Yastremski and Dwight Evans.

MM: They’ve both helped me. In the cage Yaz talks about line drives and an up-the-middle approach. Evans has worked with me on my pre-swing routine, staying relaxed and focused.

RSN: It has to be a thrill to get instruction from guys like that.

MM: It is, and it’s awesome that they’re working with us -- giving so much back to the game. I have to mention David Howard, my hitting coach down here, too. He’s really helped me a lot. And Lynn Jones -- he’s had a real impact.

RSN: Tell us about home run derbies. You seem to be making a habit of winning those.

MM: I’ve won three. The first was when I was 16, in the Connie Mack World Series. The most recent was at the Florida State League All-Star game last month. Getting the opportunity is fun.

RSN: Any secret to your success?

MM: I suppose intensity and focus, like in most things. So much of success is between your ears. And, of course, you need to be hot at the right time.

RSN: Tell us about getting drafted by the Red Sox.

MM: It was a thrill to get drafted, period. And having it be Boston was special. Of all the teams in baseball, it’s among the best places to play. I started learning as much as I could about the team as soon as I was picked. I’m very happy to have an opportunity to play in a Red Sox uniform. I want to work hard and play there some day-- I want to help them win.

RSN: A big part of playing in Boston is the rivalry with the Yankees. What are your thoughts on that?

MM: From what I watched last year, it’s amazing. It’s almost like it’s been taken to another level.

RSN: How about in the minors? You play against Tampa, the Yankees’ Florida State League affiliate.

MM: It starts in the minor leagues, sure. You see those pinstripes and you turn it up a notch.

RSN: Before I let you go, tell me a little about what makes Matt Murton tick. Besides baseball, what’s important to you?

MM: Family is important. Friends. Church. I think you need to start with a good foundation. It’s important to be real with people, and it doesn’t matter if you’re a ballplayer or work at the market. You should be thankful for what you’re given in life.

RSN: Thanks, Matt. Red Sox Nation wishes you the best of luck with your career.

MM: You’re welcome. It was a pleasure talking with you."

What can't be forgotten are the prospects needed to make this wonderful trade, here are reports that myself and DJ did before the season began:

Justin Jones:

Felix Pie opened eyes as the youngest position player in the league, but it was one of the league's youngest starting pitchers that emerged as one of baseball's top prospects. At 18 years old, Justin Jones wowwed the Midwest League. He posted a .215 batting average against, a 2.28 ERA, and 11.04 K/9; the latter two would have made him top 5 in the MWL with more innings. After all was said and done, Jones was rated the 3rd best prospect in the MWL and it's 2nd best pitcher. Pretty good season for a guy who was slated to start at short-season Boise in 2003.

Jones can flat out pitch. He throws a fastball that tops out 94 mph, which projects to add a few more ticks when he becomes a man. His best pitch is perhaps his 12-to-6 curve, which he willingly throws in any count with very good command. If that's not enough, Jones has a changeup well beyond his years which projects to be his 3rd plus pitch. He also throws an occassional splitter just for fun. In addition to 3 ML quality pitches, Jones has shown decent if not very good control. He keeps the ball in the park, only giving up 1 HR in 126 professional innings. In 27 career starts, he has only given up more than 3 runs only once. And he also hit 7 batters last year, which shows he has the toughness to use both sides of the plate.

Jones has the most projectable body in the system. At just 19 years old, Justin has room to grow taller and stronger. He maintained pinpoint control of his fastball, while gaining a few ticks in 02. The key for him will be if he can put up these eyepopping numbers over an entire season. Jones was shutdown for the season on August 5th with a tired arm, after suffering the same ailment earlier in the year. Being just barely out of high school, it's understandable that his stamina needs work. He has a ton of time to work on getting his arm strong enough to start 20+ games and throw over 100 innings in the minor leagues to get himself ready for a 6-month major league season. He will start 2004 at Daytona, with a chance to get a taste of AA before the season ends, if healthy.

Brendan Harris:

Brendan Harris burst onto the scene with a phenomenal 2002. He put up eye-popping numbers of .328, .395, .532, with 15 HR, 39 doubles, 7 triples, and 17 stolen bases. Understandably, Harris suffered a dropoff in '03, but still put up very respectable numbers. His HRs dropped from 15 to 5, average fell nearly 50 points, and his steals became a non-factor. Still, Harris was right on par with his doubles, triples, and BB/K ratio.

And what a strange year 2003 was for Brendan. He went from splitting time at 2B and 3B to a short-lived experiment at catcher. From there he went back to splitting time at 2B and 3B to the Cubs #1 3B prospect after Kelton's position switch. After the trade to bring in Aramis Ramirez, Harris became the #1 2B prospect when the deal included Bobby Hill. For the first time since being drafted, Harris should have the benefit of focusing primarily on 1 position. Brendan is more polished at 3B defensively, but has the ability to be above average at 2B. He has decent range, the best IF arm in the system, and good, soft hands. The only thing he lacks right now is the experience with the double play pivot, which should come with consistent play there.

Brendan Harris is exactly the type of player the Cubs need. He doesn't have the speed of a prototypical leadoff hitter, but would be the perfect #2 hitter for the Cubs. He's patient, a tough out, and can flat out rake. He has a minor league career batting average of .302 , an OBP in the .370's, and a solid .71 BB/K ratio. Harris is a natural gap hitter, who has averaged 36.5 doubles in his 2 full seasons as a Cub. The potential is there for some of those doubles to turn into HRs, as Harris has played in a couple of tough pitcher's leagues. The Cubs have 2B covered in the majors with Mark Grudzielanek and Todd Walker, but both are in their contract years. Which means Harris will likely get a shot in 2005 to become the Cubs everyday second baseman. Brendan should enjoy hitting in the PCL, a league with a enough gaps and altitude to boost his XB numbers even more. Unfortunately though, he has suffered a setback, as he will miss 6-12 weeks after having arthoscopic knee surgery. When he is ready to play, Harris should hit near the top of a loaded Iowa lineup which will also feature top prospects, Jason Dubois, David Kelton, and Nic Jackson. I expect Brendan to put together another solid season and become the Cubs 2B and #2 hitter for a long time.

Francis Beltran:

Francis Beltran seems to be somewhat of the forgotten man in the Cubs system. Just 2 years removed from being rated the Cubs 4th best prospect, Beltran has done little statistically to lose his prospect status. However, he lost a lot of time in 2003 due to triceps tendonitis. Beltran went to the DL in June, but was brought back prematurely a month later, effectively ending his season. This may have been a blessing in disguise, as the Cubs were in danger of losing Francis to Pittsburgh in the Lofton/Ramirez trade. When he did pitch, Frank wasn't quite himself. He gave up a lot more hits/IP and for the first time in a while, wasn't striking out a man per inning. However, he redeemed himself and proved his health with an outstanding Dominican winter league showing. Beltran threw 10.2 innings for Licey, giving up just 5 hits and striking out 12. He also saved 3 of the 6 games in the Caribbean World Series to earn MVP honors.

When healthy, Beltran still has the best fastball and slider anywhere in the minor league system. His fastball is near unhittable, topping out at 98 mph with great movement. His slider bites low and away from RH hitters and comes to the plate in the upper 80s. Beltran had a shot to win a bullpen job in 2003, but the Cubs wanted him to go to Iowa and work on his control (which allowed 12 BB/9 in his brief 2002 callup). He will never have pinpoint control, but should once again get a shot to win a job in spring training. This will be a big year for Frank. He is just 23, but has been around the system forever. He needs to stake a claim to a roster spot soon, because all the talent is coming up fast behind him

2004-07-31T07:55:00.000-07:00

X-Mas in July:

Today is the day, where MLB teams can either acquire players that will lead them to the promised land or can lead them to not making it to the post-season while giving up a top prospect that becomes an All-Star while making league minimum.

Right now, the name of on most Cubs fans list in Nomar. There are still rumors floating around via the Sun Times "The Cubs continued Friday to talk to the Boston Red Sox about shortstop Nomar Garciaparra, but the feeling remains that it would be an upset of major proportions if the sides reach an agreement today... Hendry also is having discussions with the Detroit Tigers about closer Ugueth Urbina and with the Pittsburgh Pirates about closer Jose Mesa... The Cubs' chances to make a deal today with the Montreal Expos to get shortstop Orlando Cabrera remain greater than their shot to hook Garciaparra and reel him in." and the Boston Globe "Industry sources were still telling the Globe last night the Sox may do something, and certainly will do something in August when waivers are required to make a deal. The Sox were still pursuing minor moves, including a deal for San Diego outfielder Jay Payton. Another industry source indicated talks with the Cubs -- Nomar Garciaparra for righthander Matt Clement -- may be revived.". Also included is the Providence Journal ""The Sox fielded a number of calls from teams interested in obtaining lefty Jon Lester, the club's second-round pick from 2002... The Chicago Cubs continue to press the Red Sox for Nomar Garciaparra, but GM Theo Epstein doesn't believe that Matt Clement is nearly enough value in return. There's little in the way of bullpen help available, but the Sox will continue until 4 p.m. today." and the Boston Herald "Eyebrows were raised and the media was on anticipation overdrive and heightened alert after seeing Nomar Garciaparra wasn't in the Red Sox lineup last night against the Minnesota Twins. Rumors have persisted about the shortstop being dealt to the Chicago Cubs in exchange for pitcher Matt Clement.".

The concept of getting Nomar is a long-shot, I would like to say a 5% chance of that happening, I don't think the Cubs are comfortable giving up Clement and putting Rusch in the 5th spot. The main point would be a what if scenario, if another SP went down, would Mitre take over, Guzman, Brownlie added to the 40 man roster? Dempster is being groomed in relief, Wellemeyer is being groomed likewise, Leicester is a possibility which might be asking too much from him.

Another name is Orlando Cabrera, which looks like it would take less to get him, but there likely won't be a dranatic improvent offensively, despite the Cubs expecting a Barrett-like rebound. Also, a source closer to the situation than I, mentioned that Montreal is likely still looking at Pie or Guzman at this stage. We'll see between now and 3PM (CST), but the Cubs aren't going to do that.

Bruce Miles of the Daily Herald mentioned in an article on how if the Cubs do not acquire a SS, they should consider giving Grudzielanek some reps at SS for the offensive improvement. This has been something I wanted to try since the Cubs did sign walker as a FA, I think any defensive drop-off from AGone to Grudz would more than be made up for by the offensive improvement especially with OBP at the top of the order.

Here is my X-Mas in July wish list:

(writing in crayon)
Dear Hendry,

Please go after Joe Mesa and Matt Stairs, they are both older and cheaper veterans who would fill the roles of Closer and LH bench type respectively. I also want the Cubs to try Mark Grudzielanek at SS. This way the Cubs could fill some key holes on the roster and not give up any potential key pieces in the future.

Todd

2004-07-31T06:45:00.000-07:00

Minor League Notes:

" ... 2. Brian Dopirak, 1b, Low Class A Lansing (Cubs) The Midwest League leader in hits (118), home runs (31) and RBIs (86) has quickly established himself as one of the top power prospects in the game, with 20 home runs and 54 RBIs in his last 50 games. "

" ... Brandon Sing ... is just five home runs away from breaking the Florida State League record of 33. It’s his third season in the league, so he’s not someone to get too excited about. Still, because he has legitimate power and he isn’t afraid to take a walk, he is a prospect. Double-A will determine whether he has any chance of becoming a starting first baseman in the majors. With Derrek Lee ahead of him and Brian Dopirak breathing down his neck, Sing probably doesn’t have a future with the Cubs."

"Brian Dopirak- Chicago Cubs- 1B I still don’t understand how a scout can look at a high school player, and say with certainty that he will hit for power. But whoever said it about Dopirak, and for whatever reasons, was definitely right. You’ve heard about the power numbers of Calvin Pickering and Ryan Howard, but Dopirak’s .606 SLG is something to pay attention to. The Cubs also have to be impressed by the .310 batting average, probably higher than what theat scout had guessed. Dopirak still doesn’t walk enough, strikes out too much, and plays bad defense. But, power is power."

2004-07-31T06:08:00.000-07:00

Back from Vacation:

It has been 2 weeks since I last posted which was surrounded by 10 days of a baseball tour throughout the Midwest and Eastern portions of the USA.

The trip actually started at Wrigley, I'm from the burbs, so it wasn't part of the trip, but catching Cubs vs. Brewers was the 1st part of the trip.

Then, we went from Chicago to Cleveland which was an easy drive, well worth it for those in the Chicagoland area if they want a mini-baseball trip to Clev/Det or Clev/Cincy. I have been to Jacobs field in the past, but it a very nice stadium, centrally located, nice features (sightlines, parking, food, etc). The Jake has the advantage of having the best scoreboard/video monitor I have seen. The game was a bust as Cleveland had been playing well and faced an awful KC team with George as an emergency call-up, the game was over early.

Next, we went to Philly to catch the Cubs vs. Phils and see Prior vs. Milton. We had great seats being 4 rows behind the Cubs dugout, I did not wave everytime the camera panned to a RH batter on-deck. Philly has a decent stadium, I didn't like where it was located in S. Philly, some of the concourses were set-up awkwardly, food was good and the views from various angles were good as well. I'm not going to mention the game results.

From Philly, we headed to Baltimore, where we caught the Red Sox vs. the O's. Camden is my fav. stadium in baseball, running into Boog Powell by his concession stand, the district of shops and restaurants located in the famous warehouse, the views of downtown, everything about the stadium is what I'd want in a ballpark. Boston won the game easily as Pedro pitched thru the rain and Boston's offense was able to hit Bedard.

Baltimore onto Pittsburgh and my 1st look at PNC, this park is basically considered as one of the nicest newer parks, walking across Clemente bridge, great views of the river and downtown, etc. The thing that impressed and suprised me the most was the condition of the downtown area, it has a very nice downtown area, similar in a reduced fashion as Chicago. Pitt. won the game as Kip Wells pitched well and Joe Table picked up the SV.

As it was a circle tour, we headed to Clev. again and caught the Tribe against Detroit, I am impressed by the Indians and if they can get a 5th starter and a reliever, they can compete with Minnesota and or the Sox for the division. I would love for the Cubs to have that offense, the youth and production level is a scary thought for a weak pitching division. Cleveland won the game by 1 run and cont. to creep closer to the Sox.

Our last stop, Detroit, Comerica is probably the most underrated of the new parks, nothing is mentioned b/c the Tigers have been awful since playing there and Detroit the city is in bad shape. It is a nice park, we were 27 rows behind the 3rd base dugout and it felt about 15 at Wrigley, they have great sight lines, easy to get around the stadium. If Detroit can field a winner, I think the park will get more recognition, despite the area it is in.

Rankings of park attended:
1)Camden
2)Wrigley (I'm spoiled as far knowing what we have in Chicago)
3)PNC Park
4)Jacobs Field
5)Citizens Pank Park
6)Comerica

Of the parks built post-1990':
1)Camden
2)PNC
3)Pac Bell/SBC
4)Jacobs Field
5)Citizens Bank Park
6)Comerica
7)Great American Ballpark
8)Comiskey (aka the cell)
9)Miller Park

(Yes, I like the Cell better than Miller Park, the recent improvements combines with a severe dislike towards Miller Park, I like the Cell better than Miller.)

2004-07-16T14:29:00.000-07:00

Minor League Notes:

From Rotoworld:

" ... Guzman has spent the year working his way back after shoulder surgery to repair a partially torn labrum. He’s back throwing in the low-90s now, and he has a quality changeup and curveball. Because of the sinking action on his fastball, he gets a lot of grounders. The Cubs expect Guzman to replace Matt Clement in next year’s rotation. If the shoulder problem was just a one-time thing, he’ll be a fine second or third starter."

2004-07-15T18:08:00.000-07:00

Coaching Patterson:

This is just a random observation.

I would like some feedback as to whether this would be a good idea or just a waste of time.

Next year, as pitchers throw off the mound in-between starts, I would like to see Patterson stand in there with his everything guarded but his vision and call ball and strikes when he would usually start his stride, Patterson kick starts his swing, so usually w/that recognition will begin when the ball is about halfway. Then have someone stand behind the plate to umpire the pitches and have someone off to the side charting the pitches. I wonder if there would be a progressionary improvement with his calls and if there was would it impact his actual ABs?

I think it would likely be definite benefit to CP and hopefully improve his pitch selection (swinging).

2004-07-15T16:41:00.000-07:00

Dopirak named Midwest League Player of the Month

(Courtesy of the Lansing Lugnuts)

Dopirak named Midwest League
Player of the Month

The Lugnuts Brian Dopirak was honored by Minor League Baseball Wednesday being named the June Topps Player of the Month in the Midwest League. The big first baseman hit .390 with 10 homers, 11 doubles, and 27 RBI for the month. Dopirak smacked a hit in 24 of 25 games and stretched a 27-game hitting into July to raise his batting average 42 points.

2004-07-15T16:23:00.000-07:00

Draftee updates:

As I reported earlier in the week, Reed on the AZL Cubs was likely Mark Reed the 3rd rd. C and it was correct as they signed him recently to a nice deal for a 3rd rounder.

"I don't really want people to know how much I signed for, but it was second-round money," Reed said. "They were really fair with me. They gave me a signing bonus and agreed to pay for four years of college like we wanted."

Here is the entire article.

As I mentioned previously mentioned, a strong showing in the AZL at C, could boost him to likely being the best C in the system. It should be interesting if his career path follows that of the Royals prospect Maier, who was all everything at Toledo at C, but shifted to the IF and is did quite well at Burlington, before advancing to High-A. I hope he stays at C, HS Cs are the the biggest gambles of them all.

Also, Sam Fuld quietly signed after deciding to go back to Stanford last year.

"The Cubs chose outfielder Sam Fuld from Durham in the 10th round, and he has been in Mesa with Kosow since last week. But the stress fracture in his wrist that hampered his senior season at Stanford is getting plenty of attention from the Cubs’ medical staff; Fuld hadn’t seen any game action entering the weekend.

"They wanted him out there," said Ken Fuld, Sam’s father. "They gave him a physical and they’re just letting him recuperate right now."

Here is the entire article.

The Cubs have plenty of OF prospects at this stage I think Fuld likely has a higher ceiling than the likes of Boyer and McQuade both from major DI programs (CSF and FSU) who were drafted relatively high.

Time for a little rant, I want Owings and Patterson signed and I know it will take overpaying them , likely 2 round type salaries. One of the setbacks might be a form of collusion that Selig does not want teams paying 2nd rd money for players drafted that late. If that is true, has he ever looked at the DF&E lists? Did he not see Blake Hawksworth sign for well over a mil, while being drafted later than Micah or EP?

2004-07-15T12:48:00.000-07:00

Minor League Recap:

Iowa-DNP

West Tenn-DNP

Daytona beat Vero Beach 5-2 as Connolly pitched 6 strong innings, the soft tossing left has cont'd to pitch well at High-A going 6-2 with a 2.90ERA on the season. Brandon Sing had another strong game as he cont. his trek towards the FSL record for HRs, he hit 2 last night giving him 27 on the season with more than a month and a half to go. One of the weaker #3 hitters you'll find did well as Greenberg went 2 for 3 with a BB and his 15th SB, Pie went 0 for 4 with a BB (.318), Buck Coats had another strong game going 3 for 4, Coats has improved slightly defensively at SS and improved his slg % by about 15-20 points, but has had a dramatic drop in OBP as his BBs have gone down by a large number. For someone with a slap-hitter style like Coats, he will have to improve the BBs to have any shot at the majors. McGehee picked up another XBH as he recorded his 22nd DB on the season and JJ Johnson went for 3 with a BB (.319). Baez and Mowday pitched 3 scoreless innings of relief.

Lansing lost to Peoria 4-2 as Jake Fox was the only Lugnuts to reach base twice going 2 for 4 with a run scored. Dopirak went 0 for 4, McQuade, Marquez, Salas, and Mejia picked up the other hits, Marquez had the only XBH (DB). Marmol pitched ok, going 6IP 7H 4ER 2BB 5K, dropping his record to 8-5. Fischer making his debut at Lansing went 1IP of scoreball ball.

Boise defeated Vancouver 8-7 as Montanez had another strong performance for the Hawks, going 2 for 4, 2 runs scored and 3RBIs, he is now hitting .360 on the season. Harvey had another hit and a BB (.268/.364/.554). Deeb making an early impression on Boise after his promotion that will likely shift Granato to SS went 2 for 3 with a HBP. Local product Matt Weber pitched decent got the ND going 5IP 8H 3R 3BB 4K raising his ERA to 2.57. Gross picked up his 3rd win going 1.2 scoreless innings.

The AZl Cubs to the AZL Giants 11-5, this marked the return of Jason Wylie, who pitchd 1IP of scoreless ball. Not many positives to talk about in this one as Hoffpauir (not Micah) went 2 for 4 with a R at 2B, Yepez suffered the loss going 3.1Ip 5H 7Er 1BB 4Ks

2004-07-14T12:00:00.000-07:00

Do Baker led teams play better in the second half?

To answer this, it dependent on several factors, some might be valid some might be invalid...

1)Baker is known for giving positional players more rest throughout the duration of the season compared to most managers.

2)He is also know for his usage of his pitchers, his teams are constantly near to top among PAP team totals (PAP=Pitchers Abuse Points see Baseball Prospectus).

3)Baker has had the luxury of some real good GMs, which the transactions for the second half of the season have likely had an impact on the winning %.

Let's take a look at Baker's record since 1995 as manager:

1995:
April
May
June

(30-30) .500

July
August
Sept
(37-47) .440

1996:
April
May
June
(36-43) .455

July
August
September
(32-51) .385

1997:
April
May
June
(47-34) .580

July
August
Sept
(41-38) .530

1998:
April
May
June
(48-36) .571

July
August
Sept
(41-38) .518

1999:
April
May
June
(43-35) .551

July
August
Sept
(43-41) .511

2000:
April
May
June
(38-38) .500

July
August
Sept
(59-27) .686

2001:
April
May
June
(43-37) .537

July
August
Sept
Oct
(47-35) .573

2002:
April
May
June
(45-35) .562

July
August
Sept
(50-31) .617

2003:
April
May
June
(42-39) .518

July
August
Sept
(46-35) .567

Totals:
April
May
June
(372-327) .532

July
August
Sept
Oct
(398-343) .537

Not a significant difference, it projects to less than 1 win difference over a 162 game season.

But, if you look at the numbers closer, you'll see a dramatic spike in 2000' and since then his second half totals have been dramatically better.

Since 2000:
April
May
June
(168-149) .529

July
August
Sept
(202-128) .612

That is a large difference over 192 games a .612 winning % projects to 99 wins and a .529 winning % projects to 85 wins, a difference of 14 games.

For the last 75 games, if the Cubs maintain a similar winning % in July, August, Sept, and Oct. as they did in 2003', they project to win 90 games.

If the maintain a similar winning % as Dusty led teams from 2000-2003 in July, August Sept, and October, they project to win 93 games.

The validity in this study is likely minimal, but it is interesting to document the peak of how Baker (and/or GM) has led his teams to a much better second half.

2004-07-14T09:21:00.000-07:00

Minor League Recap:

Iowa-DNP

West Tenn-DNP

Daytona lost to Vero Beach 9-2 as Daytona was able to score only 2 runs on 12 hits, Pie coming back from the Future's Game went 2 for 3 with 2BBs, Coats was 2 for 4 w/his 15th DB and 2RBIs, J.J Johnson went 3 for 4 (.319), Jones went 2 for 4 at 2B, Sing went 1 for 3 with a BB, McGehee cont. his hot hitting while picking up his 21st DB of the season. Tavares was roughed going 5IP 6H 5R 5ER 1BB 1K 2HR, Shipman and Jongejan each allowed 2 runs in 3IP combined.

Lansing-DNP

Boise beat Vancouver 7-6 as Harvey cont. to hit for power, hitting his 5th HR and 6th DB while driving in 5, he is now up to (.264) and is likely ahead of Dopirak when he was at Boise last year. Anthony Grananto cont. to hit well at leadoff going 2 for 4 with a BB and his 5th SB, the undrafted FA has been quite impressive. Richie appears to be getting healthy as he went 2 for 4 (.258), he was the most likely C to reach the majors from the 2003' draft. Hagerty had a rough outing going 2.2IP 6H 3R 2ER 2BB 1K, Mathes had a great outing in relief going 3.1IP 1H 0R 0BB 7Ks!

The AZL Cubs defeated the AZL Royals 8-6 as they pounded out 12 hits, Morales was 3-5 with a RBI, Zane Green was 1 for 4 with a R and a RBI. BC alum Ryan Morgan was 2 for 3 with 2 BBs, and 3 runs scored. Puello was 2 for 4 with a DB and 2 runs scored.

2004-07-14T05:12:00.000-07:00

This time it counts:

I find it interesting that the 1st two hitters (Jack Wilson and Todd Helton) up in the btm of the 9th were from teams (Pitt. and Col.) a combined record of 33 games below .500 and no chance of making the playoffs.

I'm not a big fan of the All-Star game, I do enjoy it, but it is an exhibition game and should be treated as such not with any post-season implications.

2004-07-13T14:22:00.000-07:00

Montanez named NWL hitter of the week:

"Boise Hawks outfielder Luis Montanez was named the Northwest League's Hitter of the Week after batting .379 with four runs scored, two home runs, eight RBIs and a .724 slugging percentage from July 5 to Sunday.

Montanez went 3-for-5 with a homer and five RBIs during the Hawks' 11-0 win over Eugene on Saturday. He currently ranks second in the NWL in batting average, and leads the league in slugging percentage and triples.

The Hawks begin a five-game series with the Vancouver Canadians (11-13) at 7:05 tonight at Memorial Stadium. The 12-12 Hawks will be trying to move above .500. Boise is only one game out of first place in the NWL's East Division."

2004-07-13T14:16:00.000-07:00

Andy Pratt News:

"Lugnuts send pitching pair to Boise, gain lefties Ferreras and Pratt

July 13, 2004 - LANSING – The Chicago Cubs have announced that pitchers Reid Willett and Ryan Kalita have been reassigned to the Boise Hawks of the Northwest League. In their place, the Cubs have promoted left handers Yorkin Ferreras from Boise and Andy Pratt from Mesa to take their places on the active roster. The moves still have the active roster at 24 active players with four disabled players.
Ferreras, who was 3-2 with a 2.55 ERA in five starts for the Hawks, will be making his third tour of duty with the Lugnuts. A non-drafted free agent by the Cubs in 1998, Ferreras was 3-6 with a 2.78 ERA in 51 appearances in 2002 for Lansing and then went 4-1 with a 3.56 in 10 games for the Lugnuts last season before being shut down with injuries.

Pratt, a 24-year-old who was acquired from the Atlanta Braves organization in the Juan Cruz trade, started the season at Iowa, going 0-4 with an ERA of 19.00 in four appearances before being placed on the disabled list. With Richmond in 2003, he went 7-10 with a 3.40 ERA in 28 appearances and was originally selected by the Texas organization in the 1998 draft.

Willett leaves the Lugnuts after going 0-3 with a 5.21 ERA in 26 games while Kalita went 0-2 with a 3.86 ERA in 12 appearances for the ballclub."

Comment: Being that I was a strong supporter of Juan Cruz, (I do like Richard Lewis as well) I feel his promotion should be brought up. I project him as a LOOGY, despite being in the top 25 of ATL's pitching rich system, depending on his control, he'll likely be a ML LOOGY.

2004-07-13T09:16:00.000-07:00

Cubs rumors from the NY smut:

A couple of NY/NJ papers have made some interesting remarks concerning the avail. of Randy Johnson and the prospective Cubs' interest in him.

Lawrence Rocca of the Star-Ledger writes: "A general manager with a team interested in Johnson handicapped the field of potential suitors this way: Angels first, Cubs second and then a tossup between the Yankees and Red Sox."

Next, is Jon Heyman of Newsday writes: "Baseball people believe that if the Cubs get involved, they have the prospects. It's probably a stretch to think the Dodgers, Giants, Cardinals or Phillies would get seriously involved, or for that matter the Mets, who aren't clear contenders. The Red Sox are at a disadvantage because Johnson knows and supposedly dislikes Curt Schilling (sorry, more speculation)."

A couple of things would have to happen 1st, the Cubs would have to trade likely Clement, a MI (Gonzalez), and a AA/AAA prospect to Boston for Nomar and then trade a boatload of prospects to AZ for RJ. To say this is unlikely is an understatement, I'd love to have Randy Johnson and Nomar but their salaries are way too much for the Cubs even unloading high salaries like Clement and AGone, I'd much rather give up Maddux than Clement at this point if the Cubs do trade him.

As far as trading Clement, the Tribune had an article about that possibility (the fake vote of confidence) in this article: "For now, general manager Jim Hendry appears inclined to hold on to Clement, at the risk of losing him to free agency for nothing rather than trading him at peak value to any number of teams that might overpay for a prime-time starter."

"But keeping Clement sends a message that the Cubs are more concerned with the here and now than with the future. Trading Clement sends a message that baseball is a business and that the Cubs don't want to lose such an important asset without getting something of value in return. It's a tough call for Hendry, who insists he hasn't shopped Clement."

Hang onto Clement for the remainder, try to ink him again, and kill two birds by having an outstanding pitcher in the long-term then, ink him long-term (utopia is a fun place).

2004-07-13T08:53:00.000-07:00

2004' Draft Update

Those who have signed:

4th rd 126 overall Chris Shaver lhp College of William & Mary
6th rd 186 overall Tim Layden lhp Duke U.
7th rd 216 overall Mitch Atkins rhp Northeast Guilford HS, Browns Summit, N.C.
9th rd 276 overall Ryan Norwood 1b East Carolina U.
11th rd 336 overall Jonathan Hunton rhp Lamar U.
12th rd 366 overall Sean Gallagher rhp St. Thomas Aquinas HS, Fort Lauderdale, Fla.
15th rd 456 overall Alfred Joseph of Foy H. Moody HS, Corpus Christi , Texas
16th rd 486 overall J.R. Mathes lhp Western Michigan U.
17th rd 516 overall Jeremy Blevins lhp U. of Dayton
18th rd 546 overall Jake Marsello rhp Boston College
21th rd 636 overall Will Fenton rhp U. of Washington
27th rd 816 overall Jason Kosow rhp Babson (N.H.) College
28th rd 846 overall Jon Douillard c Vanderbilt U.
42th rd 1265 overall Ryan Morgan 3b Boston College
44th rd 1323 overall Zane Green of Clemson U.
48th rd 1438 overall Olin Wick c U. of Puget Sound
50th rd 1494 overall Gerald Miller of Prarie View A&M U.

Note: I assume from the Box Score from last night's AZL Cubs game that Reed at C was 3rd rd. pick Mark Reed, I didn't list him, but I assume he signed.

Most important three that have not signed:
2nd rd 66 overall Grant Johnson rhp Notre Dame U.
8th rd 246 overall Eric Patterson 2b Georgia Tech
19th rd 576 overall Micah Owings rhp Georgia Tech

2004-07-13T06:55:00.000-07:00

Minor League Recap:

Iowa-DNP

West Tenn-DNP

Daytona lost to Vero Beach 10-4 as Pie is still out after playing in the futures game, Butler was most of the offense going 3 for 4 with his 3rd HR, 2 runs scored and 2 RBIs. Coats and Greenberg each had a hit and a run scored, while McGehee, McKnight, and Johnson had a hit apiece. Sisco had another mediocre outing going 5IP 4H 2ER 3BB 3Ks, his ERA is at 4.30 for the season and has a BB/K ratio he should not be proud of.

Lansing-DNP

Boise-DNP

The AZL Cubs defeated the AZL Angels 7-6 as Reed went 2 for 5 with a DB, run scored, and a RBI. Reed who wasn't not listed as Mark Reed, is the 3rd rd. C who would be the highest draftee to sign so far. He is a similar type player as his uber-prospect prospect Jeremy Reed, the only question might be his defensive ability to stay at C, but can hit to play any position. Pedro Griffin went 2 for 3 2BBs, 3 runs scored, 2SBs, while playing SS. Quinones who came in to PH for Green after 1AB went 3 for 4 w/2 runs scored and a RBI. Krawiec who is still on a rehab assigment pitched 4IP 4H 1ER 0BB 2K.

2004-07-12T16:09:00.000-07:00

What a mess at SS:

As the rumors, rumors, and more rumors swirl about the Cubs getting Cabrera, an increase in density of this mess can be expected.

In a recent ATM report by Lee Sinins (noted for Baseball Encyclopedia), sent an updated of RCAA (Runs Created Above Avg.).

Here is the definition of RCAA:

This is a Lee Sinins creation. It's the difference between a player's runs created total and the total for an average player who used the same amount of his team's outs. A negative RCAA indicates a below average player in this category.

Ramon Martinez -8
Rey Ordonez -7
Alex Gonzalez -6

Total: -21 Runs created below average

Let's look at the worst RCAA totals by individual players in the NL:

1 Neifi Perez -21
2 Brad Ausmus -20
3 Alex Cintron -19
T4 Tony Batista -17
T4 Orlando Cabrera -17
T4 Adam Everett -17
T4 Luis A. Gonzalez -17
T8 Marlon Byrd -15
T8 Mark DeRosa -15
T8 Denny Hocking -15

2004-07-12T14:20:00.000-07:00

Minor League Recap:

Iowa-DNP

West Tenn-DNP

Daytona-DNP

Lansing defeated Burlington 7-0 as Bear Bay had one of his best starts of the season going 7IP 5H 0R 0BB 5K. Although, the rotation has not been as effective as the 2003' MWL Championship rotation, it has been a strong one, due to the early pitching of Marshall, unfort. the return of Jones, Bay, and somewhat of a suprise, Marmol. Many contributed on offense as the Lugs had 16 hits, McQuade was 3 for 3 with a BB and 2 runs scored, Dopirak was 2 for 4 with a run (.314), Salas was 1 for 2 with a BB and 2RBIs. Fox, Rick, Fitzgerald, and Rojas each went 2 for 4, Fitzgerald led the Lugs w/3RBIs.

Boise defeated Eugene 9-1, despite the lack of hits from the 1st 4 hitters who went a combined 2 for 16, the 5-9 hitters were 12-23 with 6 runs and 4RBIs. Despite going hitless at the leadoff spot Granato was able to get on base 4 times (2BB, 2HBP), Gresky hitting 2nd had his best day as a pro going 2 for 5 with his 1st HR (.143), but as previously mentioned Boyer went 3 for 5, Norwood was 2 for 5 with his 7th DB, Richie was 2 for 4, even Francisco was 2 for 5, and undrafted FA Deeb was 3 for 4 w/2DBs. The pitching was equally impressive as Brito got the win going 5IP 3H 1ER 2BB 1K, the combination of Hunton and Fenton pitched 4 scoreless innings w/5H 0R 1BB 7Ks. Harvey was 0-4 with a BB, Montanez was 0-5 (.367). To further elaborate how well Anthony Granato is getting on base at leadoff, he is hitting .274 but his OBP is .436, he has 19BBs in only 74 ABs, but has 24Ks.

The AZL Cubs beat the AZL Rangers 6-3 as long as Zane Green is in the AZL, I will post how he belongs at Boise. Zane Green went 2 for 3 with his 3rd triple and drove in 3, he is now hitting .405. Now, it is not the fact that he is dominating the League that wants me to advance him, it is the fact that he played at a major Baseball Univ, one that produced former Cubs draftee Khalil Greene and Rockies slugger Baker, which is Clemson. Sorry for the gripe, it is great that he has been so productive, but back to the recap, another key player in that game was Ryu. Ryu pitching another rehab assignment pitched 2IP 1H 0R 0BB 3Ks & 6th rounder, Layden pitched well going 2IP 0H 0R 1BB 2Ks. Other hitters that did well yesterday were Puello, Perez and Hoffpauir (Micah's little brother) as each collected 2 hits.

2004-07-11T19:10:00.000-07:00

Is Sosa the best defensive RF in the NL in 2004'?

Before laughing, look at the numbers as they might give you a suprise.

This discussion was brought up at
Fanhome

1st, I'll list the most common defensive stats (RF, ZR, and Fielding %) among RF'ers with 50+ games started.

Fielding %:
1st (1.000)

Range Factor:
5th (2.13)

Zone Rating:
1st (.937)

2nd, I'll use some more valid defensive stats that cannot be impacted by chances, pitchers, etc. quite as easily as RF, ZR, and Fielding %.

UZR is one of my fav. defensive stats, it was created by Michael Lichtman (former writer at Primer/Baseballthinkfactory, now working in MLB). Here is the in-depth review of UZR and the effectiveness it incorporates when evaluating defense.

Thru the 1st 37 games, Sosa has a UZR of +5, which is an amazing figure thru that little amount of games. That projects to 21.89 runs per 162GP, to put that into context, look at the study by TangoTiger when he weighted UZR over the span of 2000'-2003'. You'll see that for RF (9) that the highest rated RF'er over that spad was Jose Gullien at 22 runs per 162 games, which is right where Sosa is headed for.

Another stat I'll use is Defensive Win Shares, while I prefer UZR, it is still more effective than most defensive metrics.

As of July 5th, Sosa was at 1.3, 6th in the Nl among RF'ers despite only 40 games.

Believe it or not, there are several key statistics that point to Sosa as being the best defensive RF'er. I won't say he is, b/c I haven't seen enough of each RF'er, but it has been a nice suprise the defense Sosa has played.

2004-07-11T07:43:00.000-07:00

Cubs Rumor Mill across the Net:

Cubs eyeing Urbina from the Sun-Times

"Cubs scouts are tracking several relievers, but don't look for a quick resolution where Detroit Tigers closer Ugueth Urbina is concerned. Tigers general manager Dave Dombrowski is fully aware that he has an ace in the hole in Urbina, who has been dealt in July in two of the last three seasons.

With many teams in need of a reliever such as Urbina, it is likely that Dombrowski will go right down to the non-waiver trade deadline July 31 to get as much as he can for him."

Comment: I like Urbina, he has not pitched that well this year, being a slightly better than mediocre reliever, the best part would be the expansion of LaTroy's role, instead of being locked in as a closer. Of course, everything depends on cost.

Aurilia is available for the Cubs from the Tribune

"The Seattle Mariners designated veteran infielder Rich Aurilia for assignment Saturday, causing speculation the former San Francisco Giants star might be headed to the Cubs.

Aurilia, a .278 hitter lifetime over nine seasons, enjoyed productive years with the Giants when Cubs manager Dusty Baker was their manager. Baker is known for being fond of and loyal to his former players, though one Cubs source said the club isn't interested in Aurilia."

Comment: Can be had for nada, would be better at SS than Ordonez and might not be better than Martinez. I don't see the point, Gonzalez will be back soon, I don't believe in Dusty's magic. The only chance of improvement from Aurilia would be League (pitcher) familiarity which would off-set his declining skills.

Cubs could make bid for Cabrera from the Newark Star-Ledger.

"The Cubs have expressed mild interest in Garciaparra, but their shortstop hunt is expected to lead them to Montreal's ORLANDO CABRERA . Apparently, the Expos are trying to be totally unrecognizable for their expected relocation to Washington next year.

More on Cabrera from the Tribune.

"Montreal is quietly shopping shortstop Orlando Cabrera, whom the Cubs have been interested in for a long time".

Comments: There are some risks when looking at Cabrera that should be addressed. 1st, he has had only one good offensive season and that was last year, his other seasons have been mediocre or bad, and there is a large enough sample to judge him correctly. I would not judge him prim. on last year and see him as a better defensive SS than offensive at this stage, which is not what the Cubs need. 2nd, his health is a great concern, he has been plagued with back problems throughout his career playing most of his career on turf. While a situation can occur similar to Rolen, Cabrera's back would likely not be healthy enough at any point this season to show a dramatic improvement over the horrible numbers he has this year.

Guardado will be expensive if being sought from Newsday.

"The Cubs, not in such good shape, held cursory talks with Boston about Nomar Garciaparra and are more likely to acquire shortstop Orlando Cabrera from Montreal. They inquired about closer Eddie Guardado, but Seattle sought "three phenoms" in return, a Cubs official said."

Comment: I love Eddie Guardado of all the players that might be avail, he would likely be the best fit and create the largest improvement. Statistically, having him and LaTroy would give the Cubs the best 1-2 punch of closer and set-up man in baseball. But, 3 top prospects is a step backwards long-term and Eddie's age and contract do not merit that type of allocation from the Cubs in acq'g him. The Cubs would be better off getting Mesa from the Bucs.

2004-07-11T07:29:00.000-07:00

Cubs Minor League Offensive Leaderboard:

(The minor league leaders)
AAA:
N/A

AA:
Stolen Bases-Dwaine Bacon 2nd (42)

Low-A
HR-Brandon Sing 1st (25), Brian Dopirak 2nd (24)

RBIs-Sing 3rd (74), Dopirak 4th (70)

SB-Chris Walker 3rd (35)

2004-07-11T06:52:00.000-07:00

Minor League Recap:

Iowa defeated New Orleans 7-3 as the "AAAA" players of Johson and Selby led the attack by combining to go 4-8, 2DBs, HR with 3 runs and 2 RBIs. Dubois went 0 for 2 with a BB, Kelton went 1 for 1 as a PH with 2 RBIs. Gonzalez did not play SS, which means he'll probably be back after the AS game.

West Tenn pounded Jacksonville 14-4 as the all-star line-up had 17 hits, led by the modern version of the daily double as Bacon went 3 for 5 with 2 runs scored and a RBI and Lewis went 2 for 6, DB, and 4 runs scored. Aron Weston went 1 for 4 with 2 BBs and scored everytime he got on base (3), Dzurilla went 2 for 5 with a BB, 2 runs scored and 3 RBIs. The ND alum Paul O'Toole did well as he cont. to suprise me with his offense going 3 for 5 with 3 RBIs, Soto had another solid game at C, going 3 for 5 with 2 RBIs raising his avg. to .266, Cedeno went 1 for 5 with 2 RBIs, even Piggy got in on the action going 2 for 3 (now hitting .308, not bad for a P), the only hitter to not get a hit was Arteaga. Piggy benefited from the offense in his no decision as he allowed 4R 7H in 4IP, he BB'ed 0 and struck out 3. Gerk picked up the win pitching 3 scoreless innings on 1 hit allowed as the bullpen combined to go 5IP 2H 0R 0BB 4K.

Brevard County defeated Daytona 7-0 in game 1 of a DH, the story of this game was the pitching of Brevard as McKnight (from Libertyville) prevented a no-hitter as the rest of the line-up went 0-21. Greenberg did draw 2BBs and Coats drew 1. Rich Hill showed signs of the pitcher he was last year, by showing a lack of control, he pitched 3.2IP 4H 5ER 5BB 3Ks.

Brevard beat Daytona 6-2 in game 2 of the DH, Greenberg, Theriot, JJ Johnson, Butler, Mcgehee, and Reyes all had 1 hit. Reyes had his 10th DB, Johnson had his 5th TR, Theriot stole his 11th base and Butler swiped his 21st. Cherry had a rough outing going 3.2IP 6H 3ER 5BB 3Ks.

Burlington defeated Lansing 3-1 as no box score has been posted, but Justin Jones went 5IP 3R 2ER 5Ks. Obviously, not much offense as Dopirak did not collect a H.

Boise attacked Eugene 11-0 as Montanez cont. to shine, years of facing Low-A and High-A hitters are paying off vs. Short Season hitters. Montanez went 3 for 5 with his 4th HR and 5RBIs, Granato did his usual job at leadoff going 2 for 3 with a TR and 2 BBs to set the table for Montanez. One of the better 2004' draftees so far, Ryan Norwood has a solid game at 1B going 2 for 5 with a HR. Yorkin Ferreras pitched well in arehab assignment going 5IP 2H 0R 1BB 7Ks, Gross and Mejia combined to go 4IP 2H 0R 1BB 4Ks.

2004-07-10T15:21:00.000-07:00

Minor League Recap:

Iowa defeated New Orleans 10-4 as Alex Gonzalez is thankfully rehabbing well at Iowa, as much I want the Cubs to upgrade SS, he has been missed. Alex went 1 for 2, 3 runs scored and a SB, he is hitting .286 with a decent OBP and SLG at AAA. Murray did well at leadoff (I'd like to see him replace Goodwin) going 2 for 5 with 3 runs scored. Murray is hitting .330 as the leadoff hitter for the Iowa Cubs. Back to Gonzalez, he hit 2nd last night which might be an indication of where he might hit when he comes back as he has been traditionally better hitter 2nd compared to lower in the order. Russ Johnson went 2 for 3 w/2 runs scored and 4 RBIs, Dubois went 1 for 4 with an RBI, Leon hit another HR giving him 12 on the season, but Kelton struggled again going 0-3 as lowers his avg. to .249. Koronka picked up his 7th win going 6IP 8H 4ER 2BB 1K, Szuminski and Chiasson pitched 3 scoreless inninsg in relief.

West Tenn lost to Jacksonville 4-3 as Nolasco made is return to AA after struggling at AAA, I have no idea why they promoted him so quickly, he'll be the 1st HS draftee from the Cubs 2001' draft to make it to the pros. The 4th overall pick Gavin Floyd is still cruising along at AA, I never liked the moved as I thought it was premature. Richard Lewis went 2 for 5 raising his avg. to .321, Bacon went 0-3 w/2 BBs and his 41st SB. Mike Mallory and Ronny Cedeno each had 2 hits as well, as Nolasco picked up the no decision. Nolasco went 5IP 5H 3ER 2BB 4Ks, Rohlicek picked up the loss as he gave up an unearned run in the btm of the 8th as the Jaxx had 4 errors on the night.

Daytona beat Brevard 5-3 as every hitter but Jose Reyes (C) had a base hit, Johnson led the offense going 1-1 with his 3rd HR on the year and drew 3BBs, he is hitting .315 after two awful seasons at Lansing. Pie went 1 for 4, run scored, and his 23rd SB, McGehee went 1 for 3 with his 6th HR in the Daytona win. Vasquez pitched well for Daytona going 6.1IP 6H 3R 1ER 3BB 4Ks, everyone's favorite European (Jongejan) and Atlee combined to go 2.2IP 0H 0R 0BB 3Ks in relief.

Lansing lost to Burlington 3-1 as Ranson had another solid outing for Lansing going 7 scoreless innings with 5H 0R 0BB 4Ks. Garcia was the sole provider of offense hitting his 6th HR, as he still hits over .300 on the season. Dopirak ended his hitting streak, but did record another BB. Mendez took the loss as he blew the save giving up 3 runs in the 9th.

Boise lost 16-1 to Eugene, not much to say about this game. Montanez hit his 3rd HR going 1 for 4 (.377), Harvey went 1 for 4 (.293), Campusano and Green to give up 15 runs (13 earned) in 5.1IP.

The AZl Cubs lost to the AZL A's 9-5 as Andy Pratt pitched well in his rehab start going 3IP 0H 0R 0BB 4Ks. Green proved why is too advanced for the AZL again going 2 for 4 (.385), Griffin might be a sign that the Dominican program may be on the rise again as he cont. to play a solid SS, going 2 for 3 with 2 runs.

2004-07-10T06:10:00.000-07:00

The City of Dead Weights:

Is there something wrong with putting out an offense that gives their team the best chance of winning? That lineup was amazing last night, has Ordonez has success against any ML pitcher, has Bako helped Maddux at all this year, should the Cubs get Eduardo Perez or drag up O'Brian out of retirement since those are the two Cs that caught Maddux during the best stage of his career? Is it worth keeeping Grudzielanek fresh while he cont. to produce less while a better hitter rots on the bench?

All these questions should be asked when trying to figure out if that was the worst line-up possible?

The players in question are Bako, Ordonez, and Grudzielanek...

Player EqAs:
Grudzielanek .259
Ordonez .121 (lower than I expected)
Sosa .303
Alou .286
Patterson .274
Lee .300
Martinez .246
Bako .201

Bench:
Walker .295
Barrett .279
Macias .234
Goodwin .174

Let's map this out, this would be my constructed line-up:
Walker .295 (2B)
Lee .300 (1B)
Sosa .303 (RF)
Alou .286 (LF)
Patterson .274 (CF)
Barrett .279 (C)
Martinez .246 (SS)
Macias .234 (3B)

That is a difference of .075 points of EqA per those 3 players, EqA is set-up in a similar manner as batting average. Could you imagine having 3 players hitting .300 on the bench, while 3 .225 hitters are in the lineup? That is the basic effect of the garbage I seen last night with that lineup.

2004-07-09T13:58:00.000-07:00

Minor League Recap:

New Orleans defeated Iowa 3-1 as Iowa could only manage 8 hits. Alex Gonzalez went 1 for 4, Dubois went 2-4 as he raised his avg. to .299. Donny Leon hit his 11th HR, going 2 for 3, Gutierrez went 1 for 4, David Kelton cont. to struggle going 0 for 3 dropping his avg. to .258, while hitting 7th. Sedlacek took the loss going 7 IP allowing 2ER.

Jacksonville defeated West Tenn 4-1 s the DJaxx only had 3H and 5 baserunners. Craig provided the offense as he hit his 13th HR, Craig has quietly put together two string halves since last July. Bacon and Druzilla had the other hits. Pinto took the loss giving up 4 runs thru 6, he also struck out 11 w/only 1 BB, as he will likely lead the organization and the SL at season's end. There was debate as to who would separate themselves between him and Pignatiello for a spot in the AA rotation and it has been Pinto that has done so.

Daytona defeated Clearwater 3-2 in Xtra innings, Pie went 1 for 5 with his 7th HR of the year, he is one HR short of doubling his HR total of last year. He has put the ball into play at an amazing .410 rate. Butler also went 2 for 5 scoring a run, Green berg went 2 for 3 with a triple and a BB, Sing did not hit a HR which is news, Theriot went 2 for 4 as well. Connolly went 6IP 4H 2ER 3BB 6Ks in the no decision & recently acq'd Andy Shipman picked up the win in relief going 2IP 0H 0ER 0BB 3Ks.

Lansing beats Burlington 4-3 as Chris Walker went 2 for 4 with a DB and his 35th SB, Dopirak went 1 for 2 with his 100th hit of the season. To quote Baseball Prospectus on Dopirak: "A year ago, Dopirak was tabbed by Baseball America as having the best power in the draft, which is a backhanded compliment if there ever was one. He's big, he's strong...and he can't hit. The numbers in Boise look good, but it's a whiffle ball park." He's learned how to translate raw power into power that brings production and he has made strides w/his eye at the plate. Petrick picked up his 9th win, despite allowing 9 hits and 3 runs thru 5 as Mendez picked up his 19th save, but he is nowhere near as productive as Wylie was last year in that same role.

Boise won against Eugene 9-7 in Xtra innings, Harvey cont. to hit well at Boise going 2 for 5 with his 4TH HR. Montanez still hanging on by a slim thread, going 3 for 6, he is hitting .385 as a Boise OF'er. Boyer went 2 for 2 in the game, Granato went 2 for 4, and Balcolm went 2 for 5 as the CF'er. Downs was a main story as well, making is Boise debut he pitched 4.1IP 5H 4ER 2BB 8Ks. The highest draft pick to sign did well as Shaver went 2.1IP 3H 0ER 2BB 3Ks.

This was my write-up on Downs from earlier this year:

Gifted pitcher who is extremely advanced for a 18yo & has the ability to throw 3 pitches for strikes. His above avg. curve and change-up compliment his high 80's FB nicely. Downs has the time and frame to add velocity as he matures physically. Arm problems have lowered his ranking, but if he is ready for Short-Season he will quickly rise up the rankings with a good showing. Was a possibility to start at Lansing if he did not get injured as fellow LH prospect Justin Jones did in 03'. Comparisons to Jamie Moyer/Tom Glavine are premature, but they'll always be attached with a pitcher with the skills of Downs.

The AZL Cubs beat the AZL Royals 14-9 as the advanced hitters (NCAA experience) cont. to hit well for the rooks, Green went 2 for 2 with 2 BBs, Douillard went 3 for 5 w/3RBIs, Griffin scored 3 runs on 1 hit. Jae Kuk Ryu made his rehab debut going 2IP 3H 3ER 0BB 2Ks. Tim layden also made his Cubs debut.

2004-07-09T13:03:00.000-07:00

Interesting Managerial Questions:

Posted at Fanhome.

"Wild Sabermetric Strategies
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Have any of you thought of wild strategies you'd like to try if you managed or were the G.M. of a major league team?

Scenario 1: Runner on third, two outs, early innings in a close game (so the opposing manager is not likely to pull his pitcher yet for a PH). The #7 batter is up. Both the #7 and #8 hitters are fairly decent, and the pitcher batting after them is batting around .100. Do you walk two batters and load the bases to get to the pitcher's spot?

Scenario 2: Runner on third, one out, bottom of the 9th in a tie game. Do you bring the center fielder in as a fifth infielder?

Others, misc.:
--Do you pinch-hit for a poor-hitting pitcher early in the game if the bases are loaded with two outs, and the score is tied? (assuming your bullpen isn't already depleted)
--Do you leave your best hitter out of the lineup and wait for the first opportunity to insert him in a key RBI situation?
--Do you have batters square to bunt when they're simply taking a pitch?
--Do you play the outfielders extra-shallow when non-power hitters are batting and no one's on base?
--Do you let a starting pitcher go more than 7 innings when you're ahead 5-2 or 4-1? (assuming a normal bullpen)
--Do you take out your starting pitcher at the first sign of trouble after the 7th inning in a close game?
--Do you bring your closer in the game for any situations before the 8th inning?
--Do you have your best hitter bat second in the lineup?
--Do you let the pitcher and catcher call the pitches?
--Do you give your best base stealers a constant green light?
--Do you have a runner on first try to get picked off (get in a rundown) with two outs, and the runner on third breaks as soon as the pitcher throws to first?
--Do you walk a batter to set up a force and load the bases with two outs in a tie game, bottom of the 9th?
--Do you deploy any other defensive shifts for certain situations?
--Do you stick to a certain pitch count for your starting pitchers?
--Do you load up on high-OBP batters?
--Do you load up on batters entering their prime (age 26-27)?
--Do you go to a four-man rotation?"

These are some interesting questions asked, some are more obvious than others, but it is thought provoking.

This is how I answered the questions within the thread...

Scenario 1:

I would not walk the #7 and #8 hitters to get to the P or the weakest hitter in an AL line-up. I would play against the big inning early in the ballgame, even if it means going after a better hitter.

Scenario 2:

I would bring him in just more shallow. With an extreme case say a pitcher like Kolb, I would consider it especially if the hitter is a slap hitter.

Other questions...

No, I would not PH for a poor hitting pitcher early in the game, there would have to be certain circumstances: 1)expansion of rosters 2)Mediocre starter P.

No, I would not leave the team's best hitter out of the line-up for the key situation. Often, the best hitter is the prim. catalyst getting to that situation.

No, I would not have him square to bunt even when taking a pitch. While it might bring the IF in on some cases, most of those who are able to bunt for hits have the IF drawn in. I think it increases the chance of him getting HBP and injuries stemming from it.

I would not instruct the OF to play any more shorter than most non-power hitters would command.

With starting pitchers going beyond 7, it depends on the P (size, age, type of pitcher), the pitch count, did he pitch 30 pitches in the 6th, etc?

Yes, I'd bring in the closer in the 7th, if that situation determined it would be the best situation. A top heavy lineup with them coming up in the 7th and/or runners on base in a close game.

No, I would not have the team's best hitter hit second, I still believe in keeping the best hitter 3rd. The 1st inning is usually the highest scored inning, the DP doesn't limit the odds of scoring in the 1st enough to move the #3 hitter one spot higher.

I'd let the pitcher and C call the pitches, hopefully it will establish good communications with the P and C as well as them doing further work w/scouting the opposition, etc. That is just an utopian type view.

Yes, I'd give my base stealers their own green light. Similar to why I'd let P and Cs, I want runners to establish on how to read pitchers, when the counts are to run, when will a P likely throw a breaking or off-speed pitch, etc.

I'd try and have him get picked off if the hitter is a below avg. hitter, the runners are above avg. for instincts, etc.

I would walk the batters to load up the bases, b/c it sets the force play. But, if it skips over a weaker hitter and brings up a stronger hitter, then I'd face the weaker hitter. But, the primary determination is the quality of hitters.

No, I would not set a pitch count for a pitcher, not with a 5 man rotation. Carlos Zambrano is going to have a different pitch count than Maddux. I think teams need to be more cautious w/pitchers, establishing a PC is further down the list of priorities in doing so.

I would try to set-up a lineup of high OBP players, I'd also like to set-up a lineup that can drive them in as well. While OBP is typically understated, I hope SLG is not overlooked when compensating OBP.

No, I don't overload with players based on their age, players in their prime are likely to produce at their peak, but players have different peak levels, which is more important than just their age as the determining factor.

Yes, I would go with a 4 man rotation. That is dependant on how well the team allocates a pitcher's recovery time, the pitch count, and the lack of a 5th starter and quality of the bullpen. But, I think a 4 man rotation would be more effective than a 5 man rotation if established properly.

2004-07-09T10:58:00.000-07:00

Are Zambrano's emotions a product of being Latin?

A relief pitcher from the Florida Marlins believes that latin players show there intensity moreso than American players especially pitchers.

Link

"If you really look around, Latin players, especially pitchers, all have something they do that shows [their intensity]," he says. "I don't know what it is about us. It's just the way we approach it and go about the game."

Personally, I don't mind him being expressive, I don't think it should be at the expense of his teammates. This is a clubhouse issue and show be confined to the walls of that clubhouse, as much as I disagree with Zambrano showing up Walker in Houston and Barrett in Milwaukee, Todd Walker should have kept his mouth shut to the media. I don't think is it a product of being Latin, emotion is a personal trait, not an ethnic trait.

2004-07-09T10:53:00.000-07:00

Minor League Notes:

" ... Cubs first baseman Brandon Sing has been named the TOPPS Player of the Month for the month of June by The TOPPS Company of New York, New York. Brandon was awarded the Florida State League Hitter of the Week, for the past two weeks as voted on by the managers of the Florida State League. For the month of June, Sing collected 24 hits in 69 at-bats for an average of .348. Sing hit nine homeruns, three doubles, scored 25 runs and collected 29 runs batted in. He was walked 32 times and had one stolen base in two attempts." (Daytona Cubs)

From Jim Callis at BA:

" ... [Brandon SIng] ... He's now 23 and in his third stint in the Florida State League, so Sing's .287/.431/.648 numbers with FSL highs in runs (62), homers, RBIs (74) and slugging have to be taken with a grain of salt. But the Cubs have also seen some Richie Sexson in the rangy 6-foot-4, 210-pounder, and he is a prospect. He needs to go up to Double-A and produce before I get too excited about him."

" ... [Brian Dopirak] ... A 2002 second-round pick out of a Florida high school, Dopirak is the most feared power hitter in the Midwest League, which he leads in homers and RBIs (64) while batting .309/.370/.609, and he has more raw pop than just about anyone in the minors. If he can make enough consistent contact (he has 173 strikeouts in 170 pro games), he'll be a force to be reckoned with."

From John Manuel at BA:

" ... [Angel Guzman or Bobby Brownlie?] I'd say it's still Guzman, who has strange numbers (2 BB, 49 SO but a 4.00+ERA). It sounds like his stuff is coming back. Brownlie has lost some velocity on his fastball, according to scouts, and also has to prove he can pitch a full season. I think Guzman has the higher ceiling, and we've even had some people call Brownlie a bulllpen guy because of his modest velocity (87-90 mph this year)."

From the Daily Herald:

" ... Pitching prospect Angel Guzman (shoulder surgery last year) came out of Saturday's start for Class AA West Tenn after 4 innings. The Cubs say Guzman is suffering through a "dead-arm" period and that he may miss 1 rehab start. The Cubs say the ailment is minor and that Guzman was throwing 91-93 mph Saturday."

" ... Luis Montanez, drafted in the first round in 2000 as a shortstop, is trying to make it as an outfielder after trying second base. For Class A Boise Saturday, Montanez went 4-for-5 with a pair of solo homers." (Arlington Daily Herald)

2004-07-02T15:04:00.000-07:00

Cubs Rumor Mill:

The Tribune mentions how it is more likely that Magglio will be on the Northside than the Southside next year in an article today. "The longer Williams and the White Sox go without assuring Magglio Ordonez he will remain on the South Side for the rest of the season, and possibly longer, the better chance they have of driving Ordonez into a Cubs uniform in 2005." While this article is generated to ignite the fire for this weekend's series, I agree with it, but I'll wait till next year before worrying about it.

The Sun-Times (I'm listed as a reader even though I usually don't) mentions that ""The Cubs are scouting Detroit Tigers closer Ugueth Urbina and have been in contact with Dave Dombrowski, the Tigers' president, general manager and CEO, about him... Unlike Kansas City's Scott Sullivan, another reliever the Cubs are scouting, Urbina has only a one-year deal; Sullivan is signed through 2005." I think Urbina should be a secondary option at this point, his numbers have been mediocre at best, Sullivan hasn't been that good either. A relief pitcher is their greatest need at this stage, Guardado is the best avail., they should set the bar high and work down, not vice versa.

Barry Rozner at the Daily Herald writes an article about how the Cubs should look at Jose Mesa from Pitts., same reasons apply as to why he should be a secondary choice like Sullivan and Urbina.

2004-07-02T13:42:00.000-07:00

Minor League Notes:

Iowa defeated Omaha 5-3 as Murray was the offensive star going 4 for 5, now hitting .341 on the season. Wellemeyer making his second appearence since coming off the DL pitched 2 scoreless innings, giving up 1 hit and striking out 2. As I mentioned in his previous write-up, I want him to get starter innings while at Iowa to work on 3 pitches. Mitre picked up the win as he cont. to pitch well at Iowa, which is where he should be based on his progression and not in the majors. The #1 thing he should work on at Iowa is a change-up or a better cutter to LHs. Dubois went 1-4 with his 15th DB, Leon went 1-3 with his 10th HR, and Kopitzke went 2-4 in the Cubs win.

West Tenn defeated Montgomery 5-4 in game 1 of a DHG in extra innings as Bacon had an amazing game for a leadoff hitter, Bacon went 1 for 2, 2 runs scored, 4 BBs, and 3 SBs giving him 41 already. Weston went 1 for 3 with a DB and 2 BBs, Creighton went 2 for 5, Mallory went 2 for 4 with a DB, Pignatiello did not have his best start going 6.2IP 7H 4R 1BB 6Ks, but the West Tenn bullpen is amazing, Van Buren lowered his ERA to 0.33, Rohlicek has an ERA of 1.89, and O'Malley pitched 2 scoreless innings to pick up the win. The bullpen combined to go 4.1IP 2H 0R 1BB 3Ks in the win.

West Tenn defeated Montgomery 2-1 in game 2 as Brownlie had one of his best outings going 6IP 2H 0R 1BB 6Ks, Van Buren did pitch 1IP and gave up a HR, raising his ERA to 0.64. Matt Craig went 2 for 3 with a run scored, Creighton went 1 for 2 with a DB, Mallory went 1 for 3, Lewis went 1 for 3, Arteaga went 2 for 3, and Dzurilla went 2 for 3.

Daytona lost to Jupiter 3-1 as Adam Greenberg had 3 of the 4 hits by the Cubs and the only RBI. Tavares took the loss going 3.2IP giving up 3 earned runs.

Lansing lost to Clinton 5-1, Walker went 1 for 3 with his 31st SB, Dopirak went 1-2 with 2 BBs, Chirinos hit his 16th double and Salas recored his 1st triple. Bay pitched well but suffered the loss going 6IP 7H 2ER 2R 0BB 5Ks.

Boise lost 5-2 to Spokane, Norwoon cont. to hit well for the Hawks, 3rd rounder Chris Shaver out of William & Mary (Swoope signing) made his professional debut going 3IP 1H 0ER 1BB 3Ks.

The AZL Cubs were shutout by the AZL Pads 4-0, P. Griffin cont. to hit well at SS (he now has a 1st name), Santana picked well going 5Ip 5H 0ER 1BB 7Ks but rec'd a no decision.

2004-07-02T09:56:00.000-07:00

End the Drought's 2004' AL all-star selections:

Starters:
C-Pudge Rodriguez (Det.)
1B-Frank Thomas (CWS)
2B-Ronnie Belliard (Cle)
SS-Carlos Guillen (Det.)
3B-Melvin Mora (Balt.)
OF-Manny Ramirez (Bos)
OF-Vlad Guerreo (Ana)
OF-Gary Sheffield (NYY)
SP-Mark Mulder (Oak)

Reserves:
C-Jorge Posada (NYY)
1B-David Ortiz (Bos)
2B-Mark Bellhorn (Bos)!
SS-Michael Young (Tex)
3B-Hank Blalock (Tex)
OF-Johnny Damon (Bos)
OF-Hideki Matsui (NYY)
OF-Matt Lawton (Clev)
OF-Vernon Wells (Tor)
DH-Travis Hafner (Cle)
C-Javy Lopez (Balt)
SS-Miguel Tejada (Balt)

SP-Curt Schilling (Bost.)
SP-Kenny Rogers (Tex)
SP-CC Sabathia (Clev)
SP-Tim Hudson (Oak)
SP-Pedro Martinez (Boston)
SP-Ryan Drese (Texas)
SP-Freddy Garcia (CWS)

RP-Tom Gordon (NYY)
RP-Eddie Guardado (Sea)
RP-Francisco Rodriguez (Ana)
RP-Jason Frasor (Tor)
RP-Mariano Rivera (NYY)

Note: These All-star lists do not factor current injuries or the fact that a minimum of 1 representative has to be present from each team.

2004-07-01T07:01:00.000-07:00

End The Drought's 2004' NL All-Star Selections:

Starters:
C-Mike Piazza (NYM)
1B-Jim Thome (Phi)
2B-Mark Loretta (SD)
SS-Jack Wilson (Pitt)
3B-Scott Rolen (STL)
OF-Barry Bonds (SF)
OF-Bobby Abreu (Phi)
OF-Lance Berkman (Hou)
SP-Jason Schmidt (SF)

Reserves:
C-Johnny Estrada (ATL)
1B-Albert Pujols (STL)
2B-Todd Walker (Cubs)
SS-Khalil Greene (SD)
3B-Mike Lowell (FLA)
1B-Todd Helton (Col)
3B-Adrian Beltre (LA)
OF-Adam Dunn (Cin)
OF-JD Drew (ATL)
OF-Miguel Cabrera (FLA)
OF-Carlos Beltran (Hou)
OF-Jim Edmonds (STL)

SP-Carlos Zambrano (Cubs)
SP-Roger Clemens (Hou)
SP-Tom Glavine (NYM)
SP-Randy Johnson (Ariz)
SP-Carl Pavano (Fla)
SP-Livan Hernandez (Mont)
SP-Ben Sheets (Mil)
RP-Eric Gagne (LA)
RP-LaTroy Hawkins (Cubs)
RP-Scott Linebrink (SD)
RP-Ray King (STL)
RP-Ryan Madson (Phil)

2004-07-01T06:05:00.000-07:00

Minor League Notes:

" .. first baseman Brandon Sing has hit his 25th home run of the season to break the all-time Daytona Cubs home run record. Sing hit another 3-run home run in the 7th inning at Brevard County. That marks the third straight game in which Sing has hit a 3-run home run and the 4th 3-run home run in his last 3 games. Tonight's home run gave the Cubs an 11-3 lead over the Manatees. The old mark stood strong since 1996, but fell tonight. Sing's next big milestone is right around the corner. The all-time Florida State League home run record is 33 and was set way back in 1951." (Daytona Cubs)

Daytona cont. to put up double digit runs as they beat Brevard County 13-2, as mentioned above Sing hit his 25th HR scoring twice, driving in 3, 2BBs. Spearmen went 2 for 4 scoring 3 times, Pie went 1 for 6, McGehee went 2 for 5 with 2RBIs as a C, Coats went 2 for 5 scoring 3 times, SB (15). JJ Johnson went 2 for 5, Greenberg went 3 for 3 with a BB, and Theriot went 2 for 4. On the mound, Sisco picked up only his second win going 5IP 4H 1R 0ER 4BB 7Ks, lowering his ERA to 4.39.

Lansing lost to Clinton 8-7, Rick was the offensive star for the Lugs going 2 for 5 with 2HRs and 5 RBIs giving him 5HRs on the season. Dopirak can hit w/out the HR going 2 for 4 with a BB and scoring 3 times, McQuade in place of Collins went 2 for 3 with a couple of BBs. Justin Jones still not completely back to form as he gets back into the swing of things went 5IP 5H 4ER 0BB 4K in the no decision.

Boise in Game 1 won 3-1 as Yorkin Ferreras on a rehab assignment pitched 5 strong innings, Granato at the top was again the main offensive weapon going 1 for 2 with a BB scoring twice. Harvey went 1 for 3 with a RBI as did Montanez, Richie also went 1 for 3. Fischer retired all 6 batters via the strikeout to pick up his 1st SV.

Boise in Game 2 won 4-1 as Boyer went 2 for 3 with a run and a RBI, Granato hit his 2nd HR going 1 for 3, Montanez was 1 for 2 with a BB, Balcom was 2 for 3 with a run, Francisco was 1 for 3 as well. Brito gets his 1st win at Boise pitching 6 strong innings while Gross picked up his 4th SV.

2004-06-30T17:17:00.000-07:00

Part III of a series on the review of Saving the Pitcher by Will Carroll.

Chapter III:

This is basically a short chapter dedicated to the pioneers and progressions of athletic trainers dating back to Herodicus. It is a nice review of how it has been transforming as medical advancements how become more complex and the demand has increased as the technology has. It also discusses the creation of the National Athletic Trainers Association (NATA) and the contributions to the collegiate and professional sport scenes. This chapter was a nice break from just a bombardment of pitching which is a nice outlet into the next chapter which deals with the mechanical side of pitching.

2004-06-30T12:20:00.000-07:00

Draft Update:

The Cubs currently have 14 of their 49 picks signed (13 College, 1 HS), those picks are:

4th round-Chris Shaver LHP (William & Mary)
9th round-Ryan Norwood 1B (East Carolina)
11th round-Jon Hutton RHP (Lamar)
15th round-Alfred Joseph OF (Foy H. Moody HS, Corpus Christi, Texas)
16th round-J.R. Mathes LHP (Western Michigan)
17th round-Jeremy Blevins LHP (Dayton)
18th round-Jake Marsello RHP (Boston College)
27th round-Jason Kosow RHP (Babson College)
28th round-Jon Douillard C (Vanderbilt)
29th round-Mike Svetlic 2B (UCLA)
42nd round-Ryan Morgan 3B (Boston College)
44th round-Zane Green OF (Clemson)
48th round-Olin Wick C (U. of Puget Sound)
50th round-Gerald Miller OF (Prarie View A&M)

2004-06-30T12:01:00.000-07:00

Minor League Notes:

Iowa lost to Memphis 4-3, Harris hit his 8th HR already (he hit 5 in 435ABs at AA last year), the main story was the return of Wellemeyer from the DL. I hope Welly remains at Iowa for the rest of the season as a starter, i hope the bring him gradually depending on the degree of the shoulder injury. The reason why I want him at Iowa is b/c I project him as a starter in the majors, I think he has two potential (+) pitches with his FB and change, but needs to develop an avg. breaking pitch to become a starter. Todd has much more value as a starter at this stage.

Daytona defeated Ft. Myers 14-8 as they cont. to hit even with Pie not in the line-up, Sing continues to merit a trip to AA as he went 2-5 hitting his 23rd and 24th HRs and 6 RBIs, Greenberg went 2 for 4 with 3 runs scored, Coats went 1 for 3 with 2 runs and 2 RBIs, JJ Johnson (who is quietly having a good season) went 2 for 4 raising his avg. to .313, even Ryan Theriot got in on the action going 3 for 4. Rich Hill picked up the easy win going 5.2IP 4H 4R 5BB 2K winning his 6th game of the year.

Lansing defeated Clinton 10-6 as Batman (Kevin Collins) and Dopirak battle for the team lead in HRs, Dopirak hit his 22nd and Collins his 21st. Dopirak also had 2BBs, Salas went 2 for 4 and hit his 1st HR of the year, while Jake Fox and Ryan Fitzgerald each went 2 for 4 as well. Despite the rough outing for Ransom, he picked up his 2 win in 3 decisions.

Boise lost 13-8 to Eugene, despite the 6 RBIs for Marquez, Granato also went 4-5 scoring 3 times hitting lead-off.

The AZL Cubs beat the AZL Royals 5-4 in 10 innings, Ryan Morgan cont. to hit for them, Griffinf had a solid game at SS, Zane Green out of Clemson had a solid game as well.

2004-06-30T11:13:00.000-07:00

Nearing the halfway point of 2004':

Since the 1st half is almost is it time to take a peek and which players have given the Cubs the most value this season.

I will be using VORP (Value Over Replacement Player) and using it in a ratio VORP per 500K, using half of the player's 04' expected salary.

VORP was created by Keith Woolner and is definition of VORP is basically-"VORP is the number of runs contributed beyond what a replacement level player would contribute if given the same percentage of team plate appearances." A replacement level player is defined as "We define a replacement level player as one who hits as far below the league positional average as the league backups do relative to league average, who plays average defense for the position, and is a breakeven base-stealer and baserunner." The value in terms of wins is basically 10 VORP equals 1 win.

2004 Cubs:
Zambrano 77.9 per 500K
Patterson 32.7 per 500K
Rusch 29.3 per 500K (assuming league minimum)
Hollandsworth 17 per 500K
Walker 12.74 per 500K
Beltran 11.32 per 500K
Barrett 8.9 per 500K
Martinez 6.44 per 500K
Hawkins 6.24 per 500K
Mercker 5.83 per 500K
Ramirez 5.06 per 500K
Lee 4.65 per 500K
Clement 4.56 per 500K
Farnsworth 3.33 per 500K
Prior 2.12 per 500K
Alou 1.88 per 500K
Grudzielanek 1.6 per 500K
Wood 1.55 per 500K
Sosa 1.12 per 500K
Maddux 1 per 500K
Macias .66 per 500K
Gonzalez .17 per .500K
Bako -1.81 per 500K
Goodwin -2.55 per 500K
Remlinger -3.184 per 500K
Borowski -11.2 per 500K

Obviously, the reason some are ranked higher than others despite the lower ranked player having a higher overall level of production is b/c of a higher salary. Injuries and lack of production also determine key roles as well as salary.

2004-06-30T06:17:00.000-07:00

A full season of Patterson:

With the start of this week, Patterson has exceeded 600ABs and over 150 games played since the start of the 2003 season, is that a large enough sample to project future success?

In those 611ABs, Patterson has scored 90 runs, 178H, 31DB, 11TR, 24HR, 89RBI, 38BB, 139K, 25SB, 9CS. That translates to .291/.334/.496 (.830 OPS)

His EqA has been rather consistent, which also helps me lead to believe that this not a fluke. In 2003', his EqA was .283 and in 2004', it is currently at .280.

He has been putting the ball into play at a very high .343 clip ((H-HR)/(AB-HR-K)), an encouraging sign to some is that this stat is defensive independent, but the .343 clip is down about 14 points for 2003'.

Given his age, low salary, and above average level of production; Patterson has been a true asset and strength of this team.

2004-06-28T18:30:00.000-07:00

The lack of patience of NYC:

Nothing is more entertaining than the "haves" whining about an expensive player that is much better than what the another "have" has. I am talking about the backlash going on in with the media and Kaz Matsui.

In an article written by Kevin Kernan of the NY post; it states that "Admit you made a mistake with Matsui". Is there something I'm missing here? Is he not ranked 10 th among all SS in RARP? I'll admit that is a stat based on the lack of quality of SS rather than actual production, but insisting in Matsui as a mistake sounds quite similar to what AL New Yorkers were saying about their Matsui.

Last year, Hideki Matsui finished with a .278 EqA about 5 points lower than what a typival LF'er averages, this year he is among the leaders in RARP among all AL players. Has he improved that much as hitter or has he adapted to a new environment?

If the Mets want to make up for their mistake by signing a player in his prime that is projected to be among NL Shortstops offensively and rates above avg. defensively, he would look good on the Northside of Chicago. Maybe the Cubs and Mets could swap mistakes, Matsui for Maddux would look pretty good right now.

2004-06-28T18:24:00.000-07:00

Peter Gammons chat wrap:

(that sound you hear is me yawning)

Bruce, Chicago,IL: With St. Louis having a good lead in the NL Central and don't seem to be slowing down, plus with the addition of Beltran to the Astros, do you think the Cubs will make a deal to improve their offense? At the beginning of the season I predicted that the Cubs would need a short-stop with credibility to take over. With the BoSox rotation struggling and it being Nomars contract year, what do you think of the possibility of a Nomar for Matt Clement, Alex Gonzalez, and Kyle Farnsworth/Bobbie Browlie?

Peter Gammons: That's imaginative, but the Red Sox have no interest in Gonzalez or Farnsworth. I don't believe, unless the Sox collapse in the next month, that they will trade Nomar. However, I agree with you, the Cubs need a shortstop who can hit near the top of the order and get on base. I suggested Omar Vizquel a couple of months ago, and I don't know whether that will go anywhere. Since Orlando Cabrera is a free agent at the end of the year, he might be a solution.

2004-06-28T18:02:00.000-07:00

Part II of a series on the review of Saving the Pitcher by Will Carroll.

Chapter 2:

One of my favorite chapters in the book, explains what I have been trying to elaborate on for years-that IPs and pitch counts at the start of the century and well into the second half of the centruty are a different breed than the common discussions held by most today. The book mentions the different styles of pitching around the start of the 20th century, it also mentions the main change was fresh supply of baseballs compared to one game=one ball. Will Carroll mentions in the book that "early pitchers did not have to exert maximum effort", this is a great point, if every pitcher had to face a high percentage of Augie Ojeda or Neifi Perez (thank you for 1998') type hitters, pitch counts would be lower as innings would be increased. I agree with the fact that injuries have become an accepted norm in today's game, it is more of a "How do we deal with an injury?" than "How do we prevent injuries?". One of my favorite quotes in the book came within this chapter, "Sometime abuse isn't measured by injury; it can often be measured by lost opportunity".

The chapter then divulges into the concept dollars lost/injury, this was a notion that I always overlooked despite the simplicity of the concept. I think it is amazing that owners view injuries as a sunk cost rather than preventable and few have taken the progressionary steps to examine new methods, which I will elaborate later in this chapter review. This chapter also puts a face on the point by mentioning the career path of Darren Dreifort and how he has gone from star collegiate closer to top pick to a quick rise to the majors to arm injuries, which had a common theme of violent mechanics throughout.

Next, it goes into the medical profession in regards to prevention and liability with the increase/decrease of injuries. Two programs are highlighted and those are the 2 teams by the Bay (SF and Oakland), much of the book is written about Stan Conte (now famous in the BALCO investigation) who has been revolutionary as far as his practices, despite having a manager not too interested in limiting pitcher abuse (mainly Schmidt). It discusses the resume needed to become a trainer, the long hours, the low pay and the often overlooked and important role they play. Along those lines, comes the A's and the work of Rick Peterson who has been a leader among current pitching coaches in biomechanics and one of the main term mentioned in the book "prehab".

This chapter was a great main course of what is to come in this book, it was extremely informative and interesting. As much as the 1st chapter was there to grab the reader, it was the 2nd chapter than hooked me.

2004-06-28T17:06:00.000-07:00

Minor League Notes:

Iowa defeats Memphis 6-4 as Dubois continues to live up to my predictions of offensive improvement going from AA to AAA, Jason went 3 for 5 raising his avg. to .310, HR-16, and driving in 3 runs. Szuminski is pitching well after being returned to the Cubs via SD picking up his 7th SV.

West Tenn. defeated Mobile 5-1 as Blasko outpitched a rehabbing Jake Peavy. Bacon goes a productive 1 for 3 with 2BBs hitting leadoff, Craig hits his 10th HR as he is carrying over his power displayed in the 2nd half of last year. Very quietly, Weston is having a solid season for them, brought over in a trade w/Pittsburgh, he has been able to hit, despite his waifish frame. Mallory also is exceeding my expectation, the former toolsy 2nd rounder is well behind where he should be, but has made progress from when I watched him with the Lugnuts. It also appears that Rohlicek has found a home in the pen and projects as a likely large LOOGY in the future, it was likely the surplus of starters at AA that shifted him to the pen. Blasko went 4.0IP 2H 1ER 0BB 5Ks and rec'd a no decision. Gerk picked up the win pitching 3 solid innings in relief.

The most exciting game of the day, Daytona defeated Ft. Myers 15 to 14 in extra innings. The star of the game was Felix Pie as he hit for the cycle going 5-6 driving in 5 runs and scoring 4 times, it was his 11th double, 6th triple, and 5th HR to go along with 2 singles and a SB (17). Greenberg went 1 for 4 with 3BBs scoring 2, Spearman went 2 for 6 driving in 4, Sing went 2 for 3 hitting his League Leading 21st HR and walking twice, McGehee as a C went 2 for 4 scoring twice and driving in 2, hitting his 4th HR and walking 2 times, Libertyville product Lukas McKnight did well at the plate as well as Buck Coats and Keith Butler. The bad news, Connolly had his worst outing since being traded, Blasdell and Atlee also struggled. It is hard to tell at this time if there were any mariner warnings during the duration of the game.

Lansing defeated Dayton 6-3 as Dopirak hit another HR his 21st of the year, Ryan Fitzgerald had a strong game going 2 for 5 with a HR driving in 3, Mejia and Garcia also did well from last year's AZL Cubs' squad. Carlos Marmol pitched reasonably well striking out 8 through 5 picking up his 8th win on the year compared to only 2 losses.

The AZL Cubs lost 15-2, Hagerty in rehab had a rough outing giving up 3 runs on 5 hits thru 3, he also hit a batter and had 2 wild pitches. The good news is that the 3 inning were the maximum he was likely to go.

2004-06-27T13:56:00.000-07:00

Book Review:

Saving the Pitcher by Will Carroll.

Being somewhat blind of the newer approaches of "pitcher maintenance", I felt this was worth the purchase price and before I go on, I must admit that the ideas/process of pitching that surrounded me through HS and various teachers (coaches) were that of the "old-school" mentality. So much of my prior belief system has been surrounding that premise, I will say that the book was outstanding and introduced new thoughts I had not contemplated.

I will do a chapter by chapter review of book, if the chapter is small I will combine two.

Chapter 1:

It was an interesting start of the book geared to put two faces onto a subject that is often left with only numbers of high pitch counts. By introducing the stories of Kerry Wood and Mark Prior, it shows a common thread between the two (great talent/ability/stuff) and the main difference between which was their how they advanced towards the majors. Wood was obviously abused throughout his HS and Prior was conditioned like a compulsive auto mechanic would care for his Porsche, I was disappointed that in the chapter it did not mention the mechanical flaws that have plagued Wood, different stride lengths, throwing across his body, etc. It also mentioned that it was 8/98 when Wood had his greatest outing, which occurred 5/98 and he graduated 3 years earlier (6/95) not 2 years earlier, I've never been one for semantics so it did not bother me as the point had been made and made quite well.

Chapter 2:

One of my favorite chapters in the book, explains what I have been trying to elaborate on for years-that IPs and pitch counts at the start of the century and well into the second half of the centruty are a different breed than the common discussions held by most today. The book mentions the different styles of pitching around the start of the 20th century, it also mentions the main change was fresh supply of baseballs compared to one game=one ball. Will Carroll mentions in the book that "early pitchers did not have to exert maximum effort", this is a great point, if every pitcher had to face a high percentage of Augie Ojeda or Neifi Perez (thank you for 1998') type hitters, pitch counts would be lower as innings would be increased. I agree with the fact that injuries have become an accepted norm in today's game, it is more of a "How do we deal with an injury?" than "How do we prevent injuries?". One of my favorite quotes in the book came within this chapter, "Sometime abuse isn't measured by injury; it can often be measured by lost opportunity".

The chapter then divulges into the concept dollars lost/injury, this was a notion that I always overlooked despite the simplicity of the concept. I think it is amazing that owners view injuries as a sunk cost rather than preventable and few have taken the progressionary steps to examine new methods, which I will elaborate later in this chapter review. This chapter also puts a face on the point by mentioning the career path of Darren Dreifort and how he has gone from star collegiate closer to top pick to a quick rise to the majors to arm injuries, which had a common theme of violent mechanics throughout.

Next, it goes into the medical profession in regards to prevention and liability with the increase/decrease of injuries. Two programs are highlighted and those are the 2 teams by the Bay (SF and Oakland), much of the book is written about Stan Conte (now famous in the BALCO investigation) who has been revolutionary as far as his practices, despite having a manager not too interested in limiting pitcher abuse (mainly Schmidt). It discusses the resume needed to become a trainer, the long hours, the low pay and the often overlooked and important role they play. Along those lines, comes the A's and the work of Rick Peterson who has been a leader among current pitching coaches in biomechanics and one of the main term mentioned in the book "prehab".

This chapter was a great main course of what is to come in this book, it was extremely informative and interesting. As much as the 1st chapter was there to grab the reader, it was the 2nd chapter than hooked me.

Chapter 3:

This is basically a short chapter dedicated to the pioneers and progressions of athletic trainers dating back to Herodicus. It is a nice review of how it has been transforming as medical advancements how become more complex and the demand has increased as the technology has. It also discusses the creation of the National Athletic Trainers Association (NATA) and the contributions to the collegiate and professional sport scenes. This chapter was a nice break from just a bombardment of pitching which is a nice outlet into the next chapter which deals with the mechanical side of pitching.

2004-06-27T13:24:00.000-07:00

Minor League Notes:

Iowa defeated Memphis 7-0 as Jimmy Anderson and Izquierdo combined for the SO. Hubbard went 2-5 with his 5th HR, scoring twice and driving in 3. Bill Selby went 2 for 5 with his 8th HR, driving in 3. Harris went 1 for 5 with his 18th doubles already and scored twice, Dubois went 2 for 4 with a BB and a RBI.

West Tenn. defeated Mobile 5-2 as Reynel Pinto cont. his fine season picking up his 7th win and lowering his ERA to 3.59. Bacon cont. to raise his avg. (.284), going 1 ofr 3 and his 38SB, Ronny Cedeno is defying the odds and is still hitting the ball well, not many questions about his defense, Ronny went 2 for 4 with 2 triples and 2 runs scored. Another interesting story is that Jermaine Van Buren who was signed out of the Central League last fall (Indy ball), he picked up his 15th save and lowered his ERA to .33 (no misprint).

Daytona defeated Fort Myers 7-6 as Baez won his 5th game, the Cubs scored 7 runs despite Pie going 0-5, Buck Coats (my fav. prospect) is getting hot, his avg. is up to .255 after going 2 for 4 scoring twice and stealing is 14th base. Sing also showing he belongs in Jackson, TN as he went 1 for 3 with 2 BBs scoring twice and driving in a run. The Cubs offense drew 8BBs which is definitely encouraging.

Lansing lost 2-1 to Dayton as the offense could only manage to get 3 hits, but they only allowed 4. It wasted a great outing by Bear Bay who went 7IP giving up 2H, 0R, 2BBs and 4Ks, lowering his ERA to 3.40. Chris Walker went 1 for 3 with a run scored, he also stole his 30th SB.

Boise defeated Eugene 5-3 as Harvey made his Short-Season debut going 1-1 with 2BBs, Chicagoland product Matt Weber picked up the win going 6IP 4H 1ER 0BB 5Ks, Montanez is still hitting well there going 1 for 3 scoring twice, his avg. is at .417. Obviously, he is too advanced for the League, but the last productive season he has had was 200. Some problems are that Francisco and Boyer have not hit there, Francisco has some of the best tools in the system (strong arm, quick bat, good frame, power) but has not had the results, Boyer was a higher pick (top 10 rds.) who played at a baseball factory (Cal. St. Fullerton) who has not been able to hit w/Wood. Norwood has adapted well to wood and like most 1B, should hit well in the NW League.

AZL Cubs defeated the AZL Brewers 8-6, this game marked the return of Krawiec, I still like the big guy, despite him suffering the serious injury (shoulder) and his age, I think he still has a future in the bigs (most likely as a LOOGY). 42nd round pick Ryan Morgan from BC should be at Boise, but Norwood (9th rd.) has a block on the position right now.

2004-06-27T13:05:00.000-07:00

Time to Edit the Batting Order:

Now that career trends are starting to show up, it is time to adjust the lineup accordingly.

In June:
Alou is hitting .208 with an OBP of .255 with a slugging % of .406 in 96ABs.
Lee is hitting.413 with an OBP of .476 with a slugging % of .728 in 92ABs.
Patterson is hitting .315 with an OBP of .364 with a slugging % of .511 in 92ABs.
Ramirez is hitting .348 with an OBP of .386 with a slugging % of .500 in 92ABs.
Barrett is hitting .222 with an OBP of .273 with a slugging % of .296 in 81ABs.

Overall:
Alou is hitting .285 with an OBP of .325 with a slugging % of .532.
Lee is hitting .310 with an OBP of .388 with a slugging % of .524.
Patterson is hitting .279 with an OBP of .336 with a slugging % of .453.
Ramirez is hitting .322 with an OBP of .367 and a slugging % of .541.
Barrett is hitting .288 with an OBP of .340 and a slugging % of .474.
Sosa is hitting .384 with an OBP of .379 and a slugging % of .556.

As long as Alou reverts back to a hitter that projects to hit in the .820-.840 OPS range, he should not be hitting 3rd. Lee has gone back to his career norms with the well-mentioned "hot" June, Patterson is climbing back to a similar EqA level as he had last year and Barrett has been struggling. Ramirez has been consistent and Sosa has been solid, but would be better off hitting 5th until he gets his timing completely back.

My projected line-up:
Walker/Grudzielanek-2B
Patterson-CF
Lee-1B
Ramirez-3B
Sosa-RF
Alou-LF
Barrett-C
Martinez/Gonzalez-SS

(W/Bako-switch SS to 7th and Bako to 8th).

2004-06-27T09:19:00.000-07:00

Positional Ranking for SS:
Avg.-29th (.236)
OBP-27th (.283)
SLG-26th (.345)
Hits-27th (65)
BBs-21st (19)
HRs-16th (4)
Runs-30th (26)

Since defense is a primary concern for SS:
28th in fielding %
23rd in Range Factor
15th in Zone Rating

The obvious statement is that Gonzalez has been gone for most of 2004, but his projected production is about par for what Martinez has brought to the position. While projections are not 100%, the career trend of Gonzalez is that he is one of most consistent players in baseball as far as year to year production. Knowing this, I can say that upgrading SS should be a priority at this stage, regardless of Gonzalez being injured or his inflated contract.

Here are two players that I think the Cubs should pursue at this point:
1)Chris Woodward

2)Julio Lugo

Either would be a significant upgrade at this stage, even when Gonzalez returns and the fact that either would hit 8th or possibly 2nd in certain situations.

Both are likely to become avail. when there is a realization that neither are potential playoff candidates. Also, each organization has capable young prospects on the verge of becomind ML regulars-TB has uber-prospect BJ Upton, while Toronto has Russ Adams doing well at AAA. Lugo will likely carry a higher price tag, b/c he has remained healthy and been more productive so far. I'm not 100% sure that TB will look to deal him, he is an upcoming FA and the prospect(s) he could net could be a nice compensation prize. TB does not have a 2B, Cantu has done well at AAA as well and could be a better fit for a youth movement w/Upton. I prefer Woodward at this stage, I think he will be avail. and the asking price would be cheaper. I think a mid-level pitching prospect could seal the deal, someone like Mitre.

Either organization is probably looking for pitching prospects, TB might be asking for someone like Wellemeyer and a positional prospect like Craig. If that is the case, the Cubs would be better off going after Woodward and pursuing a SS during the off-season.

2004-06-26T09:54:00.000-07:00

Minor League notes:

Highlights from yesterday...

Brownlie had a rough outing going 5.2IP 3H 4ER 2BB 6Ks (6-5 3.13ERA), pitching well despite not having the same velocity he had as the top college prospect at Rutgers or the star of Team USA during the Summer of 2001.

My guess is that his shoulder is still not 100%, I spoke to a scout to followed him through HS and his mechanics are basically the same, which have always been good, despite being a small pitcher.

Sisco was off to a good start when a likely rain delay stunted his start as he pitched 2IP 1H 0ER 1BB 3Ks, before being pulled. Sing cont. to hit as he goes 2-3 with his 20th HR and 2 runs scored, Pie also went 3-5 with a R and 2RBIs. I am pleased that Pie as increased his BBs as the season progresses, people forget that based on his age, he should be playing at Boise, but will likely head to AA next Spring. I am glad the Cubs have taken a more passive approach with Pie than they did with Patterson. If there any indication of Pie's talents, look at what he did in Winter Ball with Licey, I charted his production and the pitchers he faced, despite half of the pitchers having Major League experience, he was able hit over .300 with an OBP in the high 3s.

Dopirak cont. to hit for avg. going 4-11 in a DH yesterday as Lansing splits the DH with Dayton. I am not suprised with the power numbers of Brian at this stage, I am suprised by his contact ratios and the ability to hit for avg. Alan Rick also had a solid DH going 6-9 with 2 doubles;the system has had a re-birth as far as catchers, Fox has done well at Lansing especially defensively, Rick is coming around offensively and Ritchie's shoulder problems appear to be behind him.

It is also time to welcome Harvey back, the Cubs were cautious with him last year, limiting him as he recovered from knee surgery followed by hamstring problems before the start of the 2004 season. He has started off well going 4-10 with 3 doubles for the AZL Cubs.

2004-06-25T13:10:00.000-07:00

Runner in Scoring Position and isolating it w/out the HR:

(Advanced warning-this will be a rant on how unproductive the Cubs have been w/RISP.)

Is it extremely difficult to measure how productive or unproductive a team can be with RISP, Stats Inc. has the ability that I do not have as far as game tracking abilities and did some recent studies that were broadcast on Sports Talk radio a couple of weeks back. Without those abilities, I will try and come up with a conclusion to try and match or dispute their findings.

I will be using data from the 2003' season, while my findings are not intended to be the end all stats, I think they will contain validity, which is my goal.

Let's look at the 2003 OPS and runs scored with Runners In Scoring Position:

Runs Scored:
1)Boston
2)Toronto
3)STL
4)ATL
5)Sea
6)KC
7)Col
8)NYY
9)Minn
10)Phil
11)Houston
12)Pitt
13)Fla
14)Bal-T
14)Tex-T
16)Ana
17)TB
18)Oak
19)SF
20)CWS
21)Mon
22)AZ
23)Cubs
24)SD
25)Mil
26)Cle
27)NYM
28)Cincy
29)LA
30)Det.

OPS
1)ATL
2)Bos
3)Sea
4)CWS
5)Tor
6)KC
7)STL
8)Col
9)Oak
10)Phil
11)NYY
12)Tex
13)Pitt
14)Fla
15)Mon
16)Hou
17)Cubs
18)AZ
19)SF
20)Mil
21)TB
22)Ana
23)Minn
24)Bal
25)Cincy
26)Clev.
27)NYM
28)SD
29)LA
30)Det.

Difference between Runs Scored and OPS:
1)Minn. (+14)
2)Balt. (+10)
3)Ana. (+6)
4)Hou. (+5)
5)Stl. (+4)-T
5)SD (+4)-T
5)TB (+4)-T
8)Tor. (+3)
8)NYY (+3)
10)Bos. (+1)
10)Col. (+1)
10)Pitt. (+1)
10)Fla. (+1)
14)KC (0)
14)Phi (0)
14)SF (0)
14)Cle (0)
14)NYM (0)
14)LA (0)
14)Det (0)
21)Sea (-2)
21)Tex (-2)
23)ATL (-3)
23)Cincy (-3)
25)AZ (-4)
26)Mil (-5)
27)Mon (-6)
27)Cubs (-6)
29)Oak (-9)
30)CWS (-16)

This obviously show a severe disparity among RS and OPS with RISP for the Cubs. While OPS is not the greatest stat to project Runs scored, it is an effective one.

To give further detail, I have to exclude HRs from the equation and I have to include ABs into the equation.

To do so I will use this formula: RS-(HR*2)/AB-HR (something off the top of my head)

The reason why the formula is such, is that it is impossible to gauge if the HRs were 2-R, 3-R, or GS when trying to separate HRs with RISP, so I decided to go with the standard 2-R HR for all. I am well aware of the flaws with that premise, but I think results would be parallel, regardless.

Here is the Cubs example:

W/RISP

In 1350ABs w/RISP the Cubs scored 528 runs, they hit 42HRs in those 1350ABs.

528-(42*2)=444
1350-42=1308

444/1308=.339

This percentage is basically RS/AB.

Here are findings:
1)Tor. (.413) (w/HRs included-.451) (.413/.451=.915)
2)KC (.413) (.458) (.413/.458=.901)
3)Sea (.398) (.445) (.398/.445=.894)
4)ATL (.395) (.451) (.395/.451=.875)
5)Oak (.389) (.400) (.389/.400=.972)
6)Bos (.387) (.445) (.387/.445=.869)
7)Ana (.380) (.415) (.380/.425=.915)
8)STL (.378) (.434) (.378/.434=.870)
9)Col (.375) (.429) (.375/.429=.874)
10)Hou (.370) (.417) (.370/.417=.887)
11)Bal. (.370) (.408) (.370/.408=.906)
12)Minn (.368) (.409) (.368/.409=.899)
13)SF (.364) (.384) (.364/.384=.947)
14)Phi (.361) (.415) (.361/.415=.869)
15)TB (.359) (.400) (.359/.400=.900)
16)NYY (.358) (.417) (.358/.417=.858)
17)Pitt (.358) (.417) (.358/.417=.858)
18)CWS (.356) (.426) (.356/.426=.835)
19)Fla (.352) (.399) (.352/.399=.882)
20)Tex (.349) (.423) (.349/.423=.825)
21)NYM (.349) (.383) (.349/.383=.911)
22)Cle (.349) (.393) (.349/.393=.888)
23)Mon (.349) (.392) (.349/.392=.890)
24)SD (.343) (.379) (.343/.379=.905)
25)Cubs (.339) (.391) (.339/.391=.867)
26)AZ (.336) (.383) (.336/.383=.877)
27)Mil (.329) (.394) (.329/.394=.835)
28)Cincy (.327) (.376) (.327/.376=.869)
29)Det (.317) (.366) (.317/.366=.866)
30)LA (.305) (.338) (.305/.338=.902)

Conclusion: These numbers indicate a parallel with the numbers done by Stats Inc., the Cubs are not a productive team when scoring without the luxury of a HR with RISP, while some of it might be lack of team speed, a % has to be given to Kim and his inability to separate being aggressive and being stupid.

So far this year:
The Cubs rank 17th in RS, 14th in OPS, and 10th in HRs (w/RISP), compared to 23rd in RS, 17th in OPS, and 13th in HRs in 2003.

2004-06-25T11:29:00.000-07:00

Scouting the opposition:

Usually, I try to avoid random posts about other teams than the Cubs (without being a statistical study), but this has been a key 2 week period for the Astros and is worth discussing. Like others, I will investigate their recent acquisition and I will look at only Houston and avoid KC's and Oakland's perspectives.

June 17, 2004 Acquired pitchers David Weathers and Jeremy Griffiths from the New York Mets for outfielder Richard Hidalgo and cash.

This was obviously a salary dump for Houston, Hidalgo is scheduled to make 12.5 mil this year and had not the same success of a year ago. His EqA was around .230 and his production was below what a replacement level player would bring, less than what "often overlooked and never given a chance" Jason Lane would have provided. Acquiring David Weathers did nothing but give NYM some cash back for a below avg. body in the pen, David's salary is around 4 mil. per season, but did allow the Cubs a sandwich pick in the 2002 draft (Hagerty), when the Mets did overpay for his services. Jeremy Griffiths is an older (26 yo.), yet intriguing pitching prospect who throw in the 93-94 range with a good slider. According to most Griffiths is likely listed in the 20-25 range among Mets prospects and probably in the 15-20 range in the Astros system.

I must give credit towards Houston for not only dumping Hidalgo, but for doing so while only having to a salary in its final year worth 4 mil and getting a decent prospect in return.

This trade will obviously lead me into my next trade...

Carlos Beltran for Octavio Dotel and John Buck.

Beltran overrated by some and underrated by some has been the second most productive CF'er behind Edmonds. Some look at the hype surrounding him as the top FA and might consider him among the top 5 in baseball, he is more complete than a Vladamir Guerrero, but is a more productive player. The detractors look at the park factors of Kauffman stadium and apply the "Coors effect", without taking into account his home/road split differential is minimal at best.

Beltran will be a boost for Houston, he becomes their 2nd best offensive player behind Berkman, while allowing Biggio to shift to the IF creating a domino effect that will put Ensberg on the bench or the more likely scenario of shifting Biggio to RF and Lane to the bench.

An interesting problem will arise with Houston's bullpen, despite the down year of Dotel and the loss of Wagner, it was the 4th in baseball according to Wolverton's ARP featured at Baseball Prospectus. Most of that was accumulated by Lidge (who'll shift to closer) and Miceli (who will shift to set-up), they accumulated 18 of 22 runs the bullpen saved over an avg. reliever. Given the workload and shifting of roles of Miceli and Lidge, this will likely create a bigger problem for Houston than expected. The 4 likely pitchers to assume the remaining roles of the pen are Stone, Weathers, Backe, and Gallo, who have a combined ARP of -6.5.

Long-term, the loss of John Buck may become a problem. Ausmus is a terrible offensive C, he is rated below most team's 2 string C for offensive production as far as RARP (Runs Above Replacement Player) and that includes Paul Bako.

Overall, I think it improves their offense which is ranked 12th based on EqA, I think their bullpen will drop likely to the middle of the park w/out Dotel and must depend on the health of Lidge (history of injury problems) and Miceli, both have been overworked at this stage. This will likely be Houston's shot to win it all, given the age of their core and the potential FA of Beltran, going for it all in the short-term usually comes up short.

2004-06-24T09:34:00.000-07:00

Minor League Notes:

The return of Luke Hagerty, coming off of TJS, it is good to see another tall lefty coming back. He is currently rehabbing in the Arizona Rookie League, where he threw 2 scoreless innings against another top prospect in the Angels' system also rehabbing (Bobby Jenks).

This is a write-up I had on Hagerty coming into this season:

"#18 Luke Hagerty 6'7" 230LBs LHP 23yo.
Missed entire 2003 season-Tommy John Surgery

Last year was a tough season to be a Cubs pitching prospect. Six of the top 12 Cubs minor league arms missed significant time. None was injured as severely as Luke Hagerty, who suffered torn ligaments in his elbow and was forced to have Tommy John surgery right before camp broke. If not for the injury, Hagerty would be on the fast track to Wrigley Field. He was slated to start 2003 in Daytona, and if he had the success of his fellow draftees (Blasko, Brownlie), would have probably ended the year in AA. Instead, Hags will come back right on the same schedule as fellow lefties Sisco, Jones and Marshall and find himself in a dogfight to earn a scarce spot in the Cubs rotation. The advantage Hagerty has is that he has 3 years of college baseball under his belt. He throws a fastball that he can dial up to about 93mph, a sharp slider, and one of the better changeups in the system. He has a good feel for and gets great movement on all 3 pitches, which should all rate as plus pitches with normal minor league seasoning. He also has the rare combination of strikeout ability and good control as evidenced by his 3+ BB/K ratio.

I sincerely hope the Cubs will be very cautious with Hagerty. He'll probably hang around in Mesa after spring training to work on his arm strength. Then get a few starts against live action before reporting to full season baseball around the start of July. Hags' numbers can probably be thrown out for 2004, but look for him to resurface as a top arm in the system in 2005."

Dopirak-heating up, always good to see BP power translate into game situational power.

" ... The free-swinging Dopriak is hitting .299-20-55 in 261 at-bats and, more impressively, cutting down his strikeout-to-walk ratio--walking 22 times and striking out 64. In just 78 at-bats at Lansing last season, Dopriak fanned 22 times and walked just twice. "He's getting repetitions and learning the more pitches you see, the better pitches you get," Cubs farm director Oneri Fleita said. "He's a guy who likes to work and that will make him better." (Baseball America)

2004-06-22T16:15:00.000-07:00

A Frustrating Quote:

"The Cubs miss Kenny Lofton at the top of this offense jumpstarting the offense".

During the 1st half of 2003', the Cubs scored 4.43 RPG, the second half they scored 4.51 RPG, a difference of .08, which projects to 6.48 runs over 81 games. Using a quick stat (Runs + RBI - HR) Lofton contributed 56 "runs created" in 56 games, this isn't an "end all stat" b/c it doesn't factor sacrificing runners or advancing runs from 1st to 3rd, but it does give a quick glance into production. Patterson in 83 games had created 101 runs, which is a higher ratio than Lofton, this does not factor that one hit leadoff and one mostly hit 6th, though. Then, we have to look at the other party in the trade w/Pittsburgh and that is Ramirez, his production using the same formula was 55 runs created in 63 games compared to the 4-headed monster of Augie/Harris/Bellhorn/Hernandez which created 64 runs in 99 games. My conclusion from this is the offense was improved more b/c of the acquisition of Ramirez over Augie/Bellhorn/Harris/Ramirez than Lofton replacing Patterson during the second half of last year.

When looking at the improvements of the Cubs during the 2nd half of the season, the improvements with the pitching was greater than the improvements of the offense. As I mentioned earlier, the offense improved .08 runs per game, but the pitching went from 3.98 earned runs per game to 3.60 earned runs per game.

2004-06-22T16:11:00.000-07:00

I'm back, sorry for the delay in posts. Between going on a minor league roadtrip through the lovely state of Iowa, looking at possibly relocation from the Chicagoland area, and most importantly my computer getting a virus, I have been unable to post.

2004-06-12T13:26:00.000-07:00

Minor League Leaderboard:

AA:

Stolen Bases-Dwaine Bacon 32 (2nd)

A-Ball:

HRs-Brandon Sing 18 (T-1st)
Brian Dopirak 18 (T-1st)
Kevin Collins 17 (3rd)

Slg. Pct.-Kevin Collins .655 (2nd)

Stolen Bases-Chris Walker 28 (T-3rd)

2004-06-12T13:23:00.000-07:00

Minor League Notes:

On the potential of dealing Guzman:

" ... Angel Guzman ... Rated as the Cubs number one prospect by The Sports Network before the season started, Guzman has the pitching tools people should be looking for. In 24 2/3rds innings pitched, Guzman has yet to walk a batter, while striking out 35. That type of control is rare to come by. His 2-1 record is fine, but his ERA is a bit high - 4.74 ... With Prior, Wood, Zambrano, and Clement, the Cubs shouldn't be worried about stockpiling young pitching. The Cubs were two outs from the World Series last season and if dealing a prospect gets them those two outs this season, it will be worth it."

Trading Guzman at this stage would be a terrible move, while shoulder injuries are the toughest to give a long-term prognosis with, his cvurrent value might be well below his long-term projection.

2004-06-07T19:36:00.000-07:00

Quote of the Day:

"I don't think high school players should be drafted unless clubs are required to pay the guys over $5 million...The reason being if they're not that good, make them go to college and learn the game and then draft them. But if you draft a high school player you have to guarantee his future. And if the player is not that good the team won't take the risk. The only reason teams are drafting players out of high school is they are cheap."
--Scott Boras, super-agent and advisor to 2004 draftees Stephen Drew and Jered Weaver (CNNSI.com)

2004-06-06T08:38:00.000-07:00

Shift in Pitching Philosophy?

To the right of this page, you'll see a poorly constructed table where I list the amount of pitches thrown over 120 (121+) throughout the past two seasons. Currently, the Cubs have thrown 13 pitches, 11 of those came with Wood against the Reds, when he was ejected/suspended, the other two were by Zambrano. They are currently on pace for 39 pitches (as 54 games is exactly 33% complete), this is a dramatic drop-off compared to the 157 pitches they accumulated last year (not including the post-season). I did not mention the number of starts of 121+, which the Cubs had 26 starts of 121+ pitches (not including the 2 from the post-season), compared to the 6 they are projected to have this year. Obviously, the injuries to Wood and Prior have played a role, as they accounted for 20 of the 26 starts and 133 of the 157 pitches.

I wanted to get another opinion on this subject so I asked
Bruce Miles at the Daily Herald and this is the dialogue:
-----------
Todd: So far this year through 1/3rd of the season the Cubs have 13 pitches over 120 (PC).

Todd: On pace for 39, last year they had 157 in the reg. season.

Todd: I know the drop is partially related to the injuries obviously, but could part of it be a more cautious approach as well?

Bruce:I believe so.

Bruce:I think they might be starting to draw some sort or correlation between PC and injuries, although I can't say for sure. They also have bullpen guys back too.
-----------
While injuries have played a key role as the injury replacements have been Mitre and Rusch, what about Clement and Zambrano, the two pitchers who have remained healthy during the last 2 years? Thru June 6th of last year, Zambrano had 2 starts over 120 and a total of 4 pitches over, Clement had no starts over 120 thru June 6th. This year has been very similar as Zambrano has had 1 start over 120 for a total of 2 pitches and Clement has had no start over 120.

It remains to be seen if there has been a shift in philosophy, it will be determined at some point later this year as the post-season gets closer.

2004-06-06T07:04:00.000-07:00

Usually I disagree:

It appears that more times than not, I find myself asking "What in the world is Dusty thinking?", whether it is leaving starting pitchers in too long when the game is out of reach, allowing Macias to PH and face a LH with Dubois or Kelton avail. on the bench, or insisting that Remlinger gets LHs out better than RHs.

This past week, it has been a different story as it appears that with the injury to Wood, the Cubs have done a better job of monitoring PCs. Then, Baker mentions how the Cubs pattern of development probably played a role in how Patterson has adjusted since becoming a ML'er and the likely demotion of Borowski, to situational RH'er. Both of these I spoke of earlier this week. I won't spend too much time on Patterson, b/c everything has been mentioned, but as far as shifting Hawkins to closer, I hope Baker shows some faith in Beltran and allows him to set-up.

2004-06-05T11:53:00.000-07:00

More Good News on the Injury Front:

Wood plays catch with Rothschild and felt no discomfort.

"Chicago Cubs pitcher Kerry Wood played catch Saturday, throwing about 30 times with pitching coach Larry Rothschild in left field and had no pain in his right arm."

Thanks to MLB.com for the article.

2004-06-05T11:39:00.002-07:00

Better News on the Injury Front:

Sosa hopeful to return within the next 7-10 days.

"It'll be another week and a half maybe. I don't know," Sosa said. "I swung a little bit and it feels great. It hurts at the end (of his swing). I still feel something in my back. I've got to get rid of anything I have there first."

Article courtesy of MLB.com

2004-06-05T07:20:00.000-07:00

Updated Top 50 Cubs Prospects:
This list is updated bi-monthly and to see the previous top 50 list click here.

Onto the list...
1)Angel Guzman RHP(1) Rehabbing quite well, should advance to Iowa quickly.

2)Felix Pie CF(3) Very young for the FSL, hitting with a higher avg. and more power.

3)Justin Jones LHP (2) Injuries have dropped him a spot, should be at Daytona soon.

4)Bobby Brownlie RHP (6) Despite the drop in veolcity, still pitching very well.

5)Andy Sisco LHP (4) Having some control issues, has not been as dominant as he has been.

6)Ryan Harvey OF (9) All indications are that is knee is fine and should be ready to tear up Boise.

7)Ricky Nolasco RHP (10) Already graduated from AA to AAA, one of the youngest at AAA.

8)Chadd Blasko RHP (5) Struggling a bit at AA, showing good control, plenty of HA and lower Ks.

9)Jason Dubois RF (15) Was in the process of destroying AAA, currently sitting on the Cubs bench.

10)Francis Beltran RHP(12) Likely a lock in the Cubs bullpen, done well with Iowa and in the majors.

11)Brendan Harris 3B (8) Injured to start the season, followed by a slow start, heating up.

12)Brian Dopirak 1B (13) Has turned raw power into results.

13)Sean Marshall LHP (25) Dominated Low-A, already at AA, last year was pitching at VCU.

14)Richard Lewis 2B (N/A) One of the leading MVP candidates in the SL, following a great AFL.

15)Jae Kuk Ryu RHP (7) Injury has dropped him down, should go to Daytona and resume pitching well.

16)Billy Petrick RHP (19) Doing quite well, tremendous improvements in a short amount of time.

17)Reynel Pinto LHP (20) Leading the Jaxx in Ks, lower his BBs over the previous season.

18)David Kelton LF (11) The drop is not an indication of his play, others have stepped up more.

19)Todd Wellemeyer RHP (14) Doing well in the Cubs pen, his ceiling is higher as a starter.

20)Matt Craig 3B (24) Cont. his hot hitting from the second half of last year, another Swoope find.

21)Luke Hagerty LHP (21) Still rehabbing his elbow, should be contributing in the minors very soon.

22)Sergio Mitre RHP (17) Probably doesn't belong on the list b/c of his service time, but I included him.

23)Carlos Marmol RHP (31) Raw pitcher, able to match pure stuff with results at Lansing.

24)Jake Fox C (40) Did not jump 16 spots b/c of his offense (.781 OPS), but b/c of his defense.

25)Rich Hill LHP (34) Showing great strides with his control, has as many Ks as baserunners allowed (H+BB).

26)Nic Jackson OF (21) More injuries have lowered his rankings, has been doing well in-between injuries.

27)Jon Leicester RHP (26) Doing fairly well at AAA, almost was called-up had Prior not returned.

28)Robert Ransom RHP (N/A) doing quite well in a limited amount of time, very good arm.

29)Bear Bay RHP (N/A) I wasn't sure what to make of him earlier, he has shown the makings of a prospects.

30)Jon Connolly LHP (N/A) Acq'd for Sanchez, not overwhelming stuff, still gets hitters out.

31)Carmen Pignatiello LHP (23) Similar to Connolly, but hasn't been able to enough retire batters at AA.

32)Micah Hoffpauir 1B (43) Nice to see him doing well at AA, showing more pop than expected.

33)Jason Wylie RHP (16) Closers can fall quickly on charts, Wylie has been injured at Daytona.

34)Dwaine Bacon CF (38) Still getting on base and showing great speed, needs to make more contact.

35)Brandon Sing 1B/OF (N/A) Showing great power at Daytona, should be at AA at this point.

36)Adam Greenberg OF (35) Not real good numbers at Daytona, like Sing should be at AA.

37)Carlos Vasquez LHP (37) Young LH, able to produce at Daytona, nothing flashy.

38)Alberto Garcia 3B/1B (50) Still showing the ability to hit, young for the MWL, good hitter.

39)Russ Rohlicek LHP (33) Decent K's, potential LOOGY, too many BBs at this stage.

40)Ronny Cedeno SS (N/A) Slick defensively, good tools, finally living to up his hype.

41)Matt Creighton 1B (N/A) Interesting trek thru the minors, hitting well at Iowa.

42)Alan Rick C (30) Hasn't been able to produce enough offense to merit his top 30 ranking from before.

43)Jermaine Van Buren RHP (N/A) Nice pick-up from the Indy Leagues, potential reliever.

44)Kevin Collins 1B/DH (N/A) Hitting well at Lansing, should see Daytona, b/c is he too old for lansing.

45)Jemel Spearman 2B/SS (36) Utility type hasn't been able to hit at AA.

46)Anderson Tavarez RHP (28) Struggling at Daytona, too many H/9, good control, low BBs.

47)Buck Coats SS (29) Still my fav. prospect, not hitting at Daytona, won't hit for power, get on base.

48)Darin Downs LHP (48) Should be ready for Boise, he should be healthy &, I still expect him to rise.

49)Andy Pratt LHP (N/A) Yes, I have him listed, he has good stuff for a LOOGY, has to get it there though.

50)Tony Richie C (42) Still bothered by shoulder problems, needs to surpass Fox at this stage.

2004-06-05T05:06:00.000-07:00

Minor League Notes:

Matt Craig was named Southern League's (AA) Player of the Week.

HITTER--West Tenn 3B Matt Craig hit .407 (11-27) with 3 runs scored, 2 doubles, 3 triples, 2 homers, 11 RBI and a .926 slugging percentage.

2004-06-04T15:35:00.000-07:00

The Rifleman isn't firing:

Is the lack of Blown Saves by Borowski finally losing its luster? Is his lack of production being noticed? Is the fact that the drop in velocity of his FB created a larger margain of error for when the hitter guesses incorrectly, (which is basically a loss of deception)?

While this isn't Fantasy or Video Game baseball available over the net or X-Box, there are better options currently on the 25 man roster that are likely to outproduce who is currently designated to close games. With that said, if the Cubs want to make a dramatic improvement to the pen, one will likely be needed to be made via trade. I would hope Guardado is the one being scouted when the scouts meander to Seattle, instead of Ichiro and/or Garcia.

Baseball Prospectus has a nice stat dedicated to fixing some of the flaws when evaluating relievers via ERA or Saves/Blown Saves, it is called ARP or Adjusted Runs Prevented. The quick definition of ARP is "A reliever's ARP is the number of runs that he prevented over an average pitcher, given the bases/outs situation when he entered and left each game, adjusted for league and park."

Here is a chart of the 30 relievers still designated as Closers & rated via ARP (heading into today).

1)Frasor-TOR (13.0)
2)Guardado-SEA (12.3)
3)Benitez-FLA (12.2)
4)Cordero-MONT (11.4)
5)Rivera-NYY (11.0)
6)Foulke-BOS (10.9)
7)Looper-NYM (10.8)
8)Mesa-PIT (9.1)
9)Gagne-LA (8.1)
10)Nathan-MIN (8.0)
11)Kolb-MIL (7.8)
12)Smoltz-ATL (6.0)
13)Baez-TB (5.9)
14)Wagner-PHIL (5.9)
15)Cordero-TEX (5.9)
16)Hoffman-SD (5.9)
17)Dotel-HOU (4.5)
18)Julio-BALT (4.3)
19)Affeldt-KC (2.2)
20)Graves-CINN (0.4)
21)Rhodes-OAK (0.3)
22)Koch-CWS (0.1)
23)Isringhausen-STL (0.0)
24)Urbina-DET (-2.1)
25)Chacon-COL (-2.3)
26)Betancourt-CLEV (-3.0)
27)Percival-ANA (-3.5)
28)Valverde-ARZ (-3.7)
29)Herges-SF (-5.9)
30)Borowski-CHC (-7.2)

Borowski hasn't been the worst closer so far this year, Mantei has an ARP of -7.8 and Biddle has an ARP of -11.0, but it isn't surprising that neither one is still designated as a closer.

With that said, Borowski is currently the worst the closer in Baseball.